976 FXUS62 KRAH 141829 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build eastward and extend across the Carolinas through tonight, then move offshore on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM Friday... Dry surface high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians this morning will migrate slowly east and eventually off the NC Coast by Saturday morning. Synoptic scale subsidence in the wake of the departing upper trough, paired with the deep W-NWLY flow aloft will support a very dry airmass with PWATS ~0.40". Aided by down- slope drying, afternoon dewpoints mixing out into the lower 40s will result in super comfortable humidity levels as high temps top out in the upper 70s NW to lower 80s SE. Clear skies and light winds atop the dry low-level airmass will allow for good radiational cooling this evening and overnight. Anyone with outdoor plans tonight will want to grab a light/medium weight jacket with overnight lows averaging a good 15 degrees below normal. Lows in the lower to mid 50s, with some mid to upper 40s possible in outlying/rural areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Friday... Broad troughiness associated with the upper low over Quebec will extend across much of the CONUS through the weekend. Strengthening southerly return flow around Bermuda high pressure that will drift east, further out into the western Atlantic throughout the day, will kick-start the moderation of the lingering dry continental airmass in place across central NC. While the 40 degree dewpoint air we are experiencing today will be of no more, lower to mid 50 dewpoint air will still, by June standards, be rather pleasant. Subtle, low-amplitude s/w disturbances spreading east through the region may cast some periods of thin cirrus clouds across the area. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected with the projected 12-15 meter low-level thickness rise likely to result in a 5 degrees of warming; highs 80 to 85. Low-level moisture advection will continue Saturday night, and will set the stage for patchy early morning fog or stratus Sunday morning, mainly across our eastern zones. Lows in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Central North Carolina will find itself stuck between weak mid level troughing across the central CONUS and a building surface ridge to the south and east through most of the long term period. This allow for predominantly southerly/southwesterly surface flow to persist, keeping the warming and moistening trend continuing into the middle of next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will return to near normal by Sunday afternoon, with highs expected to range from the upper-80s (northwest) to near 90 (southeast). The warmest day of the week will likely occur on Monday afternoon (a degree or two warmer than Sunday), with comparable to slightly cooler high temperatures expected for the remainder of the work-week thanks to increasing mid to upper-level cloud cover across the region. Overnight lows will remain seasonal, settling in the upper-60s to low-70s each night. Precipitation chances will trend upwards with time thanks to strengthening onshore flow across the southeastern CONUS on the western periphery of the strengthening Bermuda Ridge. Have trended POPs closer (but not quite all the way to) LKLYs by Wednesday afternoon with both the GFS/ECMWF hinting at a frontal passage during this time-frame. Otherwise, expect a general uptick in airmass type thunderstorm coverage beginning Monday evening (primarily across the far western Piedmont zones), plausibly persisting for several days beyond the current forecast period, with weak troughing expected to persist across the central to eastern half of the U.S. With best upper-level jet dynamics remaining well north of the area, thinking the severe threat should remain isolated each afternoon and evening, with cold pool propagation remaining the primary convective driver. Primary threat, which should also remain relatively isolated, will likely remain flash flooding, especially in areas that see repeat thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Friday... Through 18Z Saturday: A dry and stable airmass will result in VFR conditions through the period. A transitory surface high moving east through the region will result in light and variable winds this evening and overnight, becoming southerly at 5 to 10 kts on Saturday as the high shifts over the western Atlantic. After 12z Saturday: Aside from chance of some early morning fog/stratus, dry and VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning. More typical summertime conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday with aftn/eve showers and tstms expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...CBL