102 FXUS65 KBYZ 141511 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 911 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 .UPDATE... Quick update this morning for thunderstorms crossing the region. Increased PoPs and PoP coverage area in response to more widespread morning development than anticipated. Gilstad && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat... A line of thunderstorms has developed east of Miles City overnight and will continue to move east and out of the area by 6am. The area will remain dry during the morning before afternoon thunderstorms begin to form with the daytime heating. Storms are expected to stay sub-severe but there could be an isolated storm or two that reaches severe criteria north of a line from Miles City to Baker. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be torrential rain with possible localized flooding along with wind gusts. Similar to yesterday, shear is limited which decreases the chance of large hail formation and limits the longevity of storms. For Saturday, afternoon thunderstorms will impact the higher terrain. High temperatures Friday will reach the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations with Saturdays temps cooling off into the low to mid 70s. Carrothers .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... No significant changes to the extended forecast. Upper low over eastern Canada and weak ridge to our west will result in slightly cyclonic northwest flow over our region Sunday, slowly transitioning to a modest ridge over the Rockies and high plains by Monday. A decent looking shortwave being hinted at for Tuesday which could result in widespread coverage of showers with some strong storms possible...especially from Billings eastward. Wednesday onward through the rest of next week the ensembles have a fairly large spread of solutions, but generally indicate an upper low out of Canada dropping south and parking itself along the Canadian/Montana border. This will keep temperatures a little cooler than normal for this time of year (low to mid 70s) with an unstable environment in our east and south, but possibly a drying downslope in our west. Just how far south that upper low drops into Montana will be the determining factor in how cool we are next week, and our precipitation coverage. So some acute changes in the forecast for Wed-Fri next week are possible moving forward. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning will become more numerous this afternoon, persisting into this evening. Local MVFR conditions along with strong wind gusts to 50kts can be expected near thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 083 055/076 054/076 054/078 057/081 056/076 051/072 5/T 42/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 43/T 23/T LVM 078 049/075 049/074 049/075 051/076 049/072 045/068 4/T 33/T 23/T 16/T 53/T 43/T 33/T HDN 083 055/075 053/076 053/078 055/080 054/074 051/070 4/T 42/T 12/T 12/T 24/T 54/T 33/T MLS 084 055/076 050/074 051/077 054/078 055/074 050/070 3/T 41/B 11/B 01/B 14/T 53/T 23/T 4BQ 081 055/074 051/074 051/074 053/076 054/073 049/070 3/T 41/U 11/B 13/T 24/T 53/T 23/T BHK 082 053/072 046/070 045/072 049/072 051/071 048/068 4/T 41/B 11/B 12/T 25/T 54/T 43/T SHR 079 051/073 049/072 049/074 050/076 051/072 046/069 7/T 56/T 44/T 45/T 45/T 64/T 33/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings