296 FXUS64 KBMX 141033 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 533 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and tonight. High pressure will continue to shift eastward toward the Carolinas today with easterly becoming more southerly, but residual dry air should remain in place. Temperatures should be a couple of degrees higher than yesterday due to slight warm advection. An increase in moisture is expected tonight as southerly flow strengthens in the surface to 850 mb layer, resulting in lows several degrees higher than our current temperatures. 87/Grantham .LONG TERM... /Issued at 350 AM CDT/ Saturday through Thursday. An evolving synoptic pattern will continue to transition across the CONUS with Central Alabama slowly shifting from quasi-zonal flow aloft to slightly more southwesterly flow throughout the upcoming weekend. At the surface, high pressure and relatively dry air will continue to shift eastward with low-level wind vectors becoming more southerly. Increasing moisture values will result, and by Sunday afternoon, rain chances will as well. Once better moisture quality arrives by then, it may stick around for awhile which will keep some variation/magnitude of mentionable rain chances in the Sun-Thu period. For now, Saturday conditions will certainly be the driest across the area as stable high pressure conditions remain in place across the Southeast with relatively weak tropospheric flow. Highs that afternoon should range in the mid 80s to lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Sunday temperatures will likely be around the same though more noticable increases in moisture will be felt outside. Dewpoints rising into the lower 70s will certainly make it feel less comfortable, though the moisture increases will help provide instability needed for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. PoPs have been placed at 20-35% with best chances across the west where highest moisture content is expected on the western edge of the low- level anticyclone. Looking ahead into next week reveals a good two three day period of rather weak jet stream flow across the CONUS. During this period, a relatively moist lower troposphere will reside across the Gulf Coast states with diurnally-driven chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, there are some hints in guidance that a shortwave perturbation will move across the southern tier of the country and approach our area late Mon/early Tue which will help instigate more widespread convection. Though it's too early to be specific with timing/spatial details of where clusters of showers & storms develop, PoPs have been adjusted accordingly with 50-70% chances area-wide those days. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and a few lower 90s should be expected Mon/Tue. A more potent Polar Jet builds in from the Pacific Northwest towards the end of the week with better flow aloft overspreading the northern tier of the CONUS by Thursday, though our situation remains consistent with a moist airmass and weaker flow. There are indications another shortwave passes during this timeframe which will resultantly increase rain chances, though rain chances remain ~50% regardless due to the persistence in tropical airmass conditions in place across the forecast area. Though it's certainly plausible to see a strong storm at some point in the long-term, lack of stronger flow aloft/synoptic features will limit deep-layer shear to <20 kts throughout the period, which limits any predictability of severe weather at this time. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions expected through the end of the period at all sites. High pressure over the area will result in clear skies with generally light easterly to southeasterly winds for much of the day. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected to continue through Saturday. Relative humidity values will drop into the upper 30s again this afternoon, but we should have good overnight recovery. KBDI values are expected to remain high for parts of the area, but relative humidity and 20 ft. winds should remain outside of critical ranges. Rain chances and low-level moisture values will be on the increase by Sunday as high pressure moves eastward and southerly flow develops across the area. Rain chances will continue thereafter into the next work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 58 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 30 Anniston 83 59 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 30 Birmingham 85 64 90 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 40 Tuscaloosa 87 65 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 30 Calera 85 62 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 40 Auburn 83 62 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 87 63 91 69 92 / 0 0 10 0 30 Troy 87 61 89 68 90 / 0 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$