034 
FXUS64 KMEG 140205
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
905 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019


.DISCUSSION...00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Water Vapor/IR
Satellite trends depict an upper level trough over the Eastern
United States with northwest flow aloft present across the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening. A few high clouds are moving
across Arkansas and North Mississippi with most areas remaining
relatively clear. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain free conditions are
expected through the remainder of the night and no updates are
anticipated at the moment with the forecast on track overall at
this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Dry weather will continue though the end of the week as high 
pressure dominates the Mid-South. High temperatures will in the 
lower 80s with lower dewpoints. Southerly winds will return to the
area Saturday bringing those lower dewpoints back up to the 70s 
with a chance for showers in the Missouri Bootheel. 

The aforementioned high pressure will move out of the area
Saturday to the east and situate the Mid-South under or just north 
an upper level trough Sunday. These features in association with 
multiple short waves through out the rest of the week will bring 
showers a chance of showers to the area until Friday. Southerly 
flow, steep lapse rates and daytime heating could promote 
thunderstorm development by mid week. Will continue to monitor 
trends as the week progresses. 

Models still indicate that precipitable water will be above 
normal for the northern parts of the area. This could lead to 
heavier rain starting Wednesday and continuing on until the end of
next week. Most of the heavier rain will be in northern Tennessee, the
Missouri Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas.
 
As for temperatures for the weekend into next week, highs will be
in the lower 80s with Saturday being the hottest day. Low 
temperatures will be back to normal for the rest of the week, 
ranging from the lower to mid 70s.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs

VFR cigs will slowly move move in during the period. Winds will 
diminish to light and variable in the first hour or so then veer 
southerly and increase by 14/16z. Higher gusts at JBR and MEM.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$