969 FXUS63 KTOP 121722 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Upper trough axis was over eastern Kansas early this morning with scattered precipitation downstream. The associated cold front was somewhat ill-defined but a similar location to the upper trough axis could be inferred. Low-level thermodynamic conditions upstream over central and eastern Nebraska were not too dissimilar to those ahead of the front with dewpoints still in the 50s. Some patchy fog over the next few hours is possible where skies clear and winds remain light over recently wetted ground, but this should be brief. A few showers may linger in far southeastern locations around sunrise but more development remains possible in the mid to late day period as the mean upper trough axis remains over the central portions of the nation with 500 mb temps around -18 C. Deep north to northwest flow creates some speed shear though directional changes are very minor. Mixed-layer CAPE approaches 1000 J/kg so a few stronger storms remain possible though forcing for ascent is much weaker than Tuesday afternoon and night. Will keep precipitation chances low with anything more than scattered activity unlikely. Drier air on gusty winds steadily builds in for the late afternoon and evening as 850 mb temps this evening and Wednesday morning fall to around the lowest 10 percent on record for mid June. Decreasing clouds and light winds tonight allows for good radiational cooling as a 1020 mb surface high settles in with lows into the mid 40s to around 50 expected, still several degrees above record values. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Thursday is shaping up to be a pleasant day across central and eastern Kansas. High pressure over the area Thursday morning will slide off to the east through the day. This will allow southerly winds to develop from west to east trough the day. Highs are expected to warm into the mid and upper 70s with sunny skies. Thursday night into Friday morning will see the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Convection is expected to develop within a thermal and moisture axis in the afternoon hours. As the low level jet increases through the evening it should help maintain the elevated convection as it veers to the southwest through the night. In addition a shortwave is forecast to move out of Nebraska as well as a little more robust one moving out of Colorado. More robust convection is expected south of the forecast area, but elevated storms are likely to maintain through the night into Friday morning before moving off to the east. Friday afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains along a dryline in the afternoon. Models also suggest another mid level shortwave will out into the Plains Friday afternoon and overnight which will aid forcing for ascent. Increasing low level jet to 40 to 50 kts is forecast to veer through the evening and overnight hours. Models vary with the placement of convection across the area. In addition southern Plains convection could limit moisture return into the central Plains. Effective shear and instability will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with hail and winds the main hazards as they move into central and parts of northeast Kansas Friday night. Saturday through Tuesday a series of mid level waves will move through weak zonal flow across the southern and central Plains. This will bring low chances for periodic convection to the area. Confidence in timing of mid level waves moving across the plains is low as is typical in a zonal flow regime. Highs are expected to be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with scattered diurnal cumulus developing during peak heating. Isolated TSRA is possible at KTOP/KFOE aft 20Z with clearing conditions and light north winds anticipated aft 01Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Prieto