599 FXUS62 KJAX 121237 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 837 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 .UPDATE... Morning visible satellite and radar imagery show a broad area of showers and thunderstorms stretching from the northeast Gulf into portions of SE Georgia. Rainfall amounts have approached 1-1.5 in/hr rates across Suwannee County within heavier thunderstorms. This development is occurring along a nearly stationary trough. With this and recent heavy rainfall last night, the flood threat is gradually growing and these areas will need to be closely monitored throughout the day. Have increased QPF for this area for this forecast package update. As the day evolves, two separate focuses will take shape across the area... NE FL... Flood threat concerns are increasing for Suwannee Valley as a persistent band of showers and thunderstorms look to remain in place through the late morning hours. While rainfall rates are not overly impressive as of 8 am, increasing instability will help aid in stronger updrafts and more efficient rainfall producers given 2"+ PWATs over the next 3-4 hours. Eventually, this band will move east as the trough pushes east. As the trough moves east, the expectation is that as surface heating increases late this morning, outflow boundary progression eastward will help initiate additional thunderstorms. These thunderstorms quickly move across the Florida peninsula late this morning within 20-30 knots storm motion flow. With the strengthening LLJ, low level updrafts should be able to keep up with the forward moving outflow boundaries. As a result, can not rule out a few strong storms along the I-95 corridor between 11am-1pm. SE GA... While dry this morning, parts of Georgia received 3-6 inches of rain yesterday with a recent CoCoRAHs report of 5.61 inches in northern Wayne County. Any additional heavy rain could lead to flooding. Showers and thunderstorms to the south will limit instability initially this morning as mid and upper level clouds move northeastward. As the band moves east, some clearing is possible leading to increased instability. This increasing instability along with increasing shear, could create an environment where severe storms would be more favorable late this afternoon and into the evening hours. A surface trough axis to the north of the Altamaha River would be the focus of convective initiation. Forecast hodographs are longer now given the trough moving into the area so organized and rotating updrafts will be possible with the strongest storms. The biggest uncertainty is associated with the instability. Abundant cloud cover will have to clear in order for surface temperatures to increase. && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions this morning with scattered showers. Expect thunderstorms to increase this afternoon and affect TAF sites mainly between 16z-20z. Southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots today...with strong wind gusts possible in thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Surface low pressure over the Florida panhandle will move ne today with a southwest flow persisting. Showers and thunderstorms will increase again today and impact the waters by mid to late afternoon. Caution levels possible tonight as sw winds increase to 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front. High pressure will build to the northwest pushing a cold front across the waters late Thursday. High pressure will then build into the Carolinas on Friday with winds shifting to the northeast. High pressure will then shift off the Carolina coast this weekend with winds veering to the southeast. Rip Currents: Low risk today and Thursday due to offshore winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 68 88 64 / 60 50 10 0 SSI 84 74 89 72 / 80 50 20 10 JAX 89 72 92 70 / 80 40 30 10 SGJ 87 72 88 72 / 80 40 40 10 GNV 86 71 88 69 / 70 20 50 0 OCF 88 71 87 69 / 70 40 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ McGinnis/Kennedy