149 FXUS63 KDLH 120619 AAA AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 119 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Updated below for 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Showers and thunderstorms have generated along a cold front that is slowly working its way southeast across northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Some of the initial storms looked interesting and we had some reports of pea to half inch hail, but most everything since then has appeared much weaker. However...cannot rule out a storm or two that may ramp up to produce large hail or strong gusty winds. This cold front to continue to advance through the area tonight and Wednesday, pushing the area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it overnight tonight and early Wednesday. Expect that as we lose the diurnal heating we should also lose the thunder potential, so have maintained the thunder chances only into early evening before removing it altogether. Wednesday morning should be just lingering showers over northwest Wisconsin. On the back side of the front temperatures should remain on the cool side, with high only in the 60s for most locations. This will set us up for a rather chilly night Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as a ridge of high pressure slides southeast across the area overnight and allows light winds and clear skies to set us up for a decent radiational cooling night. I have some concerns for frost along Iron Range and areas north of there, and we will have to re-evaluate that again tomorrow before deciding on whether we need a Frost Advisory for tomorrow night or not. Considering that we had some minimum temperatures down around freezing this morning, this concern is not unrealistic, and will be including frost in the HWO today. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 The long term is dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, producing generally cooler weather and periods of showers and thunderstorms as shortwaves move through the area in the northwest flow aloft. Friday looks like our greatest chance for precipitation as a decent shortwave moves through the area with fairly good agreement between models. However, the Saturday through next Tuesday time frame are much more uncertain and have maintained only some small chances for precipitation. Have temperatures through this period near normals, but much is going to depend on getting any organized convection days going over the area, which would produce a much cooler day. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites except HYR where MVFR to near IFR ceilings will develop late tonight and persist into Wednesday morning before clearing out. Isolated light rain showers this evening will gradually end, with skies clearing from west to east across northern Minnesota. In northwest Wisconsin rain will linger along with lower ceilings developing, remaining MVFR to near IFR until mid to late morning on Wednesday. Skies then clear out at all sites with just a few fair-weather VFR cu possible Wednesday afternoon. Winds increasing out of the north-northwest early Wednesday morning into the afternoon, with gusts to 20 knots or greater at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 No hazardous marine conditions expected through the next 48 hours. North to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday into Wednesday night, then southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday and Friday. A few spotty showers across western Lake Superior tonight, otherwise dry Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for showers return Thursday night, with thunderstorms possible Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 45 62 41 70 / 90 10 0 10 INL 40 63 41 71 / 30 0 0 20 BRD 45 66 43 73 / 100 0 0 10 HYR 48 64 39 73 / 70 50 0 10 ASX 46 61 41 71 / 70 60 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...JJM SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...JJM MARINE...JJM