958 FXUS61 KCLE 112320 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 720 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 ...00z Aviation and Mid Evening Update... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region tonight will build east to New England on Wednesday. Low pressure will deepen as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes on Thursday, pulling a cold front east across the area. High pressure will return to the Ohio Valley on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Everything appears on track for a beautiful evening across the region. Previous discussion... High pressure over the area will keep conditions dry tonight through much of Wednesday as it moves east towards New England. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s east to the mid 50s west. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s. A digging upper trough will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday, with a surface low developing and moving north into the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This will bring a cold front east into the area Wednesday night, with showers and isolated thunderstorms expected ahead of the front. Went with categorical pops moving across the area after 00Z, and slowed down the arrival of pops Wednesday afternoon across the area with the slower trend of the latest hi-res guidance. Lows tomorrow night will be in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins with a well developed upper trough just to our west and a surface low from Lake Erie to Lake Huron. Models show deep moisture across the area which shift east slowly throughout the day. This pattern supports high pops and will have categorical numbers for the morning dropping to likely pops in the afternoon central and west. Thursday night will need to hold onto likely pops northeast but taper pops elsewhere as drier air moves in. Friday looks dry for the most part as high pressure ridges north into the area from the TN Vly. Saturday the high moves off the east coast allowing low pressure to approach from the west. Moist southerly flow will overspread the area ahead of the trough so would expect at least scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday as the day wears on as afternoon li's drop to -4 to -8C. Temps begin Thursday with highs in the 60s. Friday a few degrees warmer with highs around 70. Saturday, warmer still with highs in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday night through Tuesday looks fairly wet. Saturday night into Sunday, a cold front will drop southeast into the area and stall as waves of low pressure ride northeast along the boundary, across the area. Will have likely pops Saturday night and Sunday. Sunday night will drop to chance pops but will boost back up to likely for Monday. Tuesday will have a mix of chance and likely pops as another wave moves across the area. Sunday through Tuesday, highs will reach the upper 70s most areas. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR is expected through the next 24 to 30 hours. Mostly clear skies tonight will give wave to high cloudiness by tomorrow. Winds will start out light and variable tonight as high pressure is near by. Winds late tonight will turn to more southeasterly or southerly around 5 to 8 knots. Southerly winds will increase a little bit on Wednesday between 10 and 12 knots with a few gusts approaching up to 20 knots. Otherwise, there are no aviation concerns with this update. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night into Thursday night and again on Saturday. && .MARINE... High pressure over Lake Erie will drift east tonight and allow light northerly flow to turn southerly late tonight and Wednesday. Flow will remain light most of Wednesday but Wednesday night will begin to increase to 10 to 15 knots as low pressure advances toward the area from the western lakes. Thursday low pressure will deepen across Lake Huron swinging the cold front east across the lake. Winds should increase into the 15 to 20 knot range and likely requiring a small craft advisory for waves late in the day. Thursday night high pressure will build north into the lower Ohio Valley while the low remains across the lower lakes. This increased pressure gradient will boost winds to around 20 knots from the northwest. Waves should get into the 4 to 6 foot range. Friday the low will move northeast into Quebec helping to relax the gradient and lower winds. Saturday and Sunday look for southwest winds across the lake at around 15 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Griffin SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...TK