943 FXUS63 KDLH 112105 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Showers and thunderstorms have generated along a cold front that is slowly working its way southeast across northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Some of the initial storms looked interesting and we had some reports of pea to half inch hail, but most everything since then has appeared much weaker. However...cannot rule out a storm or two that may ramp up to produce large hail or strong gusty winds. This cold front to continue to advance through the area tonight and Wednesday, pushing the area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it overnight tonight and early Wednesday. Expect that as we lose the diurnal heating we should also lose the thunder potential, so have maintained the thunder chances only into early evening before removing it altogether. Wednesday morning should be just lingering showers over northwest Wisconsin. On the back side of the front temperatures should remain on the cool side, with high only in the 60s for most locations. This will set us up for a rather chilly night Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as a ridge of high pressure slides southeast across the area overnight and allows light winds and clear skies to set us up for a decent radiational cooling night. I have some concerns for frost along Iron Range and areas north of there, and we will have to re-evaluate that again tomorrow before deciding on whether we need a Frost Advisory for tomorrow night or not. Considering that we had some minimum temperatures down around freezing this morning, this concern is not unrealistic, and will be including frost in the HWO today. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 The long term is dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, producing generally cooler weather and periods of showers and thunderstorms as shortwaves move through the area in the northwest flow aloft. Friday looks like our greatest chance for precipitation as a decent shortwave moves through the area with fairly good agreement between models. However, the Saturday through next Tuesday time frame are much more uncertain and have maintained only some small chances for precipitation. Have temperatures through this period near normals, but much is going to depend on getting any organized convection days going over the area, which would produce a much cooler day. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms move through the region this afternoon which could cause occasional lower VSBYs. Chances for thunderstorms diminish this evening. Showers continue overnight and clear west to east. Sub-VFR to potentially MVFR CIGS develop for most sites overnight. Skies clear west to east. Gusty winds build in tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 A cold front approaching Lake Superior this afternoon will move across the lake this evening. This will produce a period of showers and thunderstorms, stronger winds and building waves for the next 6-12 hours, before beginning to diminish again toward Wednesday morning. A few storms this evening may produce winds approaching 30 knots, but do not expect widespread severe weather. Overall, the area will not be impacted by any organized systems through the week - just bouts of unstable air that may form thunderstorms and showers at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 45 62 41 70 / 80 10 0 10 INL 40 63 41 71 / 30 0 0 20 BRD 45 66 43 73 / 70 0 0 10 HYR 48 64 39 73 / 50 30 0 10 ASX 46 61 41 71 / 40 50 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...KC MARINE...LE