499 
FXUS64 KMEG 111502
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1002 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019


.DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Another unseasonably cool
afternoon is in store for the region with afternoon temperatures
expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Will update forecast
to remove morning wording.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Models in good agreement on the pattern over the next few days.
Upper level pattern has a trough moving into the Mid-South
tonight. The trough will finally push east of the area on
Wednesday night. The later half of the week will have northwest
flow aloft. Over the weekend the upper flow transitions to 
southwest flow aloft. 

The surface pattern shows a frontal system moving into the Mid-
South on Wednesday, however, most areas will remain dry. Best
chance for rain in northern parts of the forecast area. However,
this will mean an increase in clouds--starting today--. After the
front moves through the area another high pressure sets in with
low humidity, so some more nice summer days. The weekend is when
we transition back to more of a summer pattern and we increase are
chances of precipitation.  

On Saturday a surface low tracks to the north of the area, yet may
bring some rain to the northern sections of Tennessee and Arkansas
along with the Missouri bootheel. However, Sunday should have a
frontal system just north of the area--a combination of cold front
to the northeast and warm front to the west--. This will bring a
good chance of some thunderstorms along with some higher humidity. 
The pattern at the beginning of next week is not much different
from Sunday as a surface low slow moves from the southern plains
into the Great Lakes region; which will continue to bring
unsettled weather to the region.  

Temperatures will be cool most of the week and then near normal
for the weekend into next week.
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

Northeast winds will increase to 8-12 kts at the forecast
terminals today, occasionally gusting between 15-20 kts. Expect
winds to become light and variable overnight before shifting from
the west on Wednesday once mixing commences. VFR conditions will
prevail through tonight with increasing mid/high clouds. A few
showers will be possible toward 18z tomorrow, mainly at JBR.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$