205 FXUS63 KGLD 111146 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 546 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 321 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Northwest flow ahead of an amplifying ridge over the western U.S. brings the axis of a trough aloft through the high plains region this evening. The trough reflected at the surface ahead of the trough aloft sweeps across the forecast area during the day today with south winds turning to the north. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead and along the trough to the east of the forecast area across central central Kansas and north of the forecast area across Nebraska in the vicinity of the stronger dynamics aloft. If the trough ends up not progressing as quickly as currently expected, a few storms to develop across the far eastern sections of the forecast area by late this afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected across the area on Wednesday as high pressure moves in behind the trough at the surface. The northwest flow that remains aloft brings a short wave trough with the appearance of convective feedback coming off the central Rockies late in the day on Wednesday. The trough moves through southeast Colorado and the Panhandle region Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Precipitation associated with this short wave appears to stay mainly south of the forecast area across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. Wednesday night and Thursday the upper ridge over the western U.S. breaks down as a weak low pressure area moves in from the Pacific and cuts through the ridge. This feature moves slowly into the southwest U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night with another couple of short wave convective feedback type features moving out of the central Rockies and across the forecast area as the upper flow become less amplified and more zonal. With good southerly return flow around the surface high ahead of a deepening lee trough, temperatures are expected to rise back up into the 80s along and west of the eastern Colorado border area, which should produce enough instability across the area along with the short wave impulses aloft moving from west to east to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the late afternoon through evening hours. Severe storms are not expected at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 The general set-up changes little through the long term period: weak zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwaves over a low level easterly flow. This combination will result in daily chances of showers and thunderstorms and temperatures near normal. As for the potential for severe storms, very unstable conditions are forecast on Friday for eastern portions of the area, with deep layer shear 35-40kts. Forcing is not particularly strong, so coverage may not be all that great, but those parameters would support a threat of large hail and damaging winds. Only weak instability is currently forecast on Saturday and Sunday, and deep layer shear will be lower as well, suggesting less of a severe threat. By Monday shear increases, but weak instability may inhibit severe potential. Details at this time range tough to pin down, but repeated rounds of strong/possibly severe/ storms appear possible during the long term period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 407 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 MCK and GLD will remain VFR through the 12Z TAF period. South to southwest winds will increase and turn to the north following the passage of a surface trough between 16-17Z and become gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours between 20-02Z. After 02Z, winds will decrease in speed and become somewhat more northwesterly. High clouds will precede the trough with additional mid-level clouds following the passage of the trough. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...LOCKHART