742 
FXUS63 KOAX 111135
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
635 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Large scale pattern this morning consisting of near zonal flow 
across the eastern half of the CONUS with a well amplified ridge 
to the west. 

Meanwhile, 300K isentropic upglide was contributing to high based 
showers rolling across southeast SD and northeast NE. RAP/HRRR 
not doing well at all with the precip and suspect just a matter of
time now before activity fizzles out as it pushes into a more 
stable environment. 

DPVA associated with vort max currently riding down the front end of 
downstream ridge will contribute to increasing synoptic scale 
ascent over the region today. That, in combination with surface 
boundary/wind shift line, will allow for scattered shower and 
thunderstorm development around mid afternoon along strengthening 
boundary layer moisture/instability axis from about northwest IA 
to south-central NE. Overall severe storm development appears 
marginal. However, with MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg, not out of the 
question a few isolated cells may turn severe mainly along/south 
of I-80 corridor during the late afternoon/early evening hours. 
Lingering post-frontal precipitation should gradually dissipate 
then after midnight. 

Stable air mass/surface high pressure invading from the north will 
bring dry and pleasant conditions Wednesday and Thursday with 
slightly below normal highs topping out in the lower/mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

The ECM/GFS highlight near zonal flow prevailing through the 
extended periods with good agreement that a series of embedded 
impulses/mid layer warm air advection will contribute to 
thunderstorm chances over most of the CWA heading into and through 
this weekend. 

Otherwise, given the pattern aloft, not much potential for any 
significant thermal advection. Thus highs will remain at or slightly 
below normal in the upper 70s/lower 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Ceilings will be mostly above 8000 feet today, except in TSRA when
MVFR (or even brief IFR) conditions will be possible. Chances are
highest at KOMA and KLNK in the late afternoon and early evening.
Some hail and gusty winds are possible, but chances of that are 
too low to include in TAFs at this time. Southerly winds will 
increase today, then shift to the north/northwest as a cold front 
pushes through later today and this evening. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller