975 FXUS65 KPUB 110946 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 346 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 An upper level ridge will be over the western U.S. today and tonight, with an upper trof over the northern and central plains states, leaving the forecast area with fairly dry northwest flow. A front will drop south through eastern CO this morning, bringing some gusty northerly winds. With cooler air lagging behind the front, temps today should still be quite warm over the plains, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 80s, except for some 70s in the northern half of El Paso County. The high valleys should see highs in the mid and upper 70s. The NAM and HRRR show now precip over the area the next 24 hrs, while the GFS hints at isolated precip chances over some of the mtns this afternoon. Will leave the forecast dry for now. The mtns and high valleys today, should see areas of gusty northwest winds. Winds over the plains this early this evening should still be fairly breezy and from the northeast. By late night, most areas should have relatively light winds. Overnight lows should generally be close to average. Warm temps in the high country today will continue causing snow melt that will keep rivers, creeks and streams running high and fast in the southwest mtns and southern portions of the San Luis Valley, as well as along the Upper Arkansas River Valley. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Wednesday-Friday...Moderate northwest flow across the Rockies on Wednesday behind one passing shortwave moderates and becomes more west to southwest Thursday and Friday, as more embedded Pacific energy translates across the region. First passing wave sends a weak front across the Plains with developing low level upslope flow through the day Wednesday leading to slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s expected across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 50s to lower 60s across the higher terrain. Models remain consistent with some modest cape across the higher terrain leading to scattered showers and storms developing across the higher terrain terrain Wednesday afternoon, especially the eastern mountains, with a few storms moving east across the Plains through Wednesday evening. For Thursday and Friday, developing southerly low level return flow helps to increase low level moisture across the Plains through the end of the work week. This, along with some embedded moisture and uvv from passing embedded waves, will lead to better coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms across the area. Storms to initiate across the higher terrain through the later morning and afternoon, and spreading east across the Plains through the late afternoon and evening hours. Models continue to indicate ample cape and enough shear to support the possibility of strong to severe storms across the Plains through this period. Warming aloft and the more westerly flow will help to boost temperatures to at and slightly above seasonal levels Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s across the Plains, with highs in 60s and 70s across the higher terrain and in the 40s and 50s at the peaks. With that said, will need to continue to monitor flows in area streams and rivers for possible flooding due to the melting of the high mountain snowpack. Saturday-Monday...Latest models differ on amplitude of passing energy across the Rockies Saturday, though do agree on a front moving across the Plains. This front, combined with moisture and lift from the passing wave, to once again lead to an uptick in convection and cooler temperatures across the area into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. KCOS and KPUB will see gusty north winds later this morning as the front moves through, and then this afternoon the winds should become more northeasterly at KPUB. KALS should see winds become northwest this afternoon and they will probably be gusty later in the afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for COZ065>068-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28