414 FXUS63 KFGF 110840 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Fairly quiet across the FA early this morning. There are a couple areas that are a little more active, one over eastern South Dakota and another over northwest North Dakota. The area over South Dakota is being driven by a short wave and the low level jet. Think the SD activity will trend into southern MN this morning, staying south of the FA. For this FA, will be watching what happens more with the activity over northwest ND. A short wave and front are expected to move southeast through the FA today, from northwest ND. SPC kept the marginal risk for severe weather today, mainly over southeast ND into adjacent areas of west central MN. Lots of uncertainty is associated with this, so confidence is pretty low with this severe threat today. One of the reasons for the low confidence is that there is already a decent amount of cloud cover across the area, which could restrict heating today. Moisture is fairly limited as well, with surface dew points in the 40s to low 50s and 00z observed BIS/ABR soundings showing precipitable water values around 0.60 inches. Finally, shear values look to remain on the weaker end as well. So think some stronger thunderstorms may be possible, but severe storms would be isolated. The front will move through the FA during peak heating, so prime time for storms would be in the 2 to 8 pm time frame. There may be some lingering showers and weak storms after 8 pm tonight, but think most activity will fade away just after midnight. Another thing to watch by late afternoon into the early evening will be a short period of gusty winds behind the cold front. Stuck in some gusts up to about 35 mph or so, mainly along and west of the Red River Valley. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Wednesday looks to stay quiet, with surface high pressure moving back into the area. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, but it looks to be fairly sunny in the morning, with a little more cloud cover by the afternoon. Northwest flow aloft prevails Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Slight precipitation chances remain in the forecast for portions of the FA to the east of the Red River, mainly Thursday afternoon, and later as the next shortwave pushes across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will become more widespread as we head into Friday as an axis of FGEN in the 925mb to 700mb layer provides lift during the afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible as CAPE values will be in the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range (GFS). There remains a rather large spatial and temporal disagreement between the global models at this time, however, and changes to the forecast will likely occur. This model disagreement diverges further as we go further into the future; however, the ECMWF, FV3, and GFS Operational models all agree upon the basic pattern where we continue to see a rather deep H5 low over the Hudson Bay region and a tendency for ridging across the western US. This will favor a pattern where regular trough passages are expected across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 VFR thru Tuesday morning, then will see development of CU in the 5000 to 7000 ft agl layer along with mid/high cloud above that as next wave moves through. Sfc front will move southeast turning south-southwest wind to northwest during the aftn, but winds remaining pretty light mostly under 10 kts. There will be scattered showers/t-storms in the area, but at this time coverage is looking scattered enough so that went VCTS as difficult to time yet exact timing of storms at TAF sites. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/Lynch AVIATION...Riddle