430 FXUS61 KBGM 110812 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 412 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers taper off from west to east early this morning as a cold front moves through the area. Then high pressure with dry weather will build back in behind the front for today and Wednesday. More wet weather is expected later in the week, especially on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 200 AM Update... The cold front has been moving through the area over the last several hours bringing showers. These showers will quickly taper off from west to east early this morning, with the last showers ending by 7-8AM across the extreme eastern portions of the area. Main change with this update was removing the mention of thunder with these showers and adjusting the timing to the latest radar trends. 925 PM Update... Cold front just about to enter Steuben county at this time. Front will push east over the next several hours bringing a period of moderate to heavy rain. To the east, wave racing up the coast bringing some enhanced rain to Sullivan county. Have updated the grids to reflect the latest timing of the systems and currents. Previous discussion continues below. Not too many changes from the previous forecast. The first of two waves of rainfall is pushing through the region now and will exit to the northeast by late afternoon/early this evening. Rainfall totals have been fairly insignificant thus far with highest amounts coming in at around 0.3". After a brief lull in the rain, the next round should enter our western zones around 0Z and cross the region through the overnight hours. Expecting heavier precipitation with the second wave, as strong low-level jet and forcing along the cold front will lead to some embedded convection and higher rainfall rates. Still looks like the highest rainfall amounts will be in the 1" to 1.5" range and generally across the Eastern Catskills and Poconos. Minor flooding will be possible, but with this system quickly pushing through, any water issues will be isolated. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO for the overnight hours. Cold front clears the area by 12Z Tuesday and expecting improving conditions through the day. However, low stratus may linger through the morning, but mixing takes hold just before noon and that layer of clouds will erode fairly quickly after that. There is a tight pressure gradient/thickness packing behind the front, so breezy NW winds are expected into Tuesday evening...highest gusts will be in the 30 mph range. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 413 am update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next round of showers and storms through the day Thursday...tapering to scattered light rain showers late Thursday night through Friday...with cool to mild temperatures to end the work week. The effects of high pressure shifting to the east will linger most of Wednesday night across central NY and ne PA with generally quiet weather conditions until sunrise. An area of low pressure at the surface tracking east across the srn Great Lakes, associated with an open upper wave, will attempt to phase with a coastal low riding newd up the mid-Atlantic into New England on Thursday. A moist and unstable air mass will accompany this incoming system...with relatively modest instability (400-600 J/kg of MU CAPE), and a sufficient amt of deep layer shear (> 50 kt) to produce some scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. The high shear values will move through earlier in the day with the corridor of max CAPE not arriving until later in the day, so the threat for severe weather will likely be limited. A decent plume of high PWAT air will lift newd through the area with values around 1 to just under 1.5 inches. Residence time should be fairly short, so not expecting any significant concerns in terms of heavy rain leading to flooding issues. Precip amts will be less than 1 inch. Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of the spectrum on Thursday with highs topping out in the lower to mid 60s. As the system shifts out of the area, a cold air mass will filter in on the back side and allow for continued cooler temperatures and a persistent layer of clouds with a few scattered rain showers into Friday. The other concern on Friday will be the breezy west winds making temperatures in the 60s feel even cooler. Best chance of rain showers will remain confined to areas north of Cortland...but cannot completely rule out a few showers across the srn tier of NY and into ne PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 413 am update... Weak high pressure builds in Friday night and for most of Saturday with generally quiet and dry weather expected. A warmer air mass arrives this weekend with highs on Saturday climbing into the 70s to near 80 in ne PA. A slow moving weak cold front will lay out west to east across the area Saturday night through Sunday with more chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms as well. At this time, not expecting an all day rain out. Will likely see some lingering morning showers give way to a scattered to broken cloud deck, and then more showers and storms in the afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer with temperatures reaching into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Higher humidity will aid in the development of a few thunderstorms. The pattern remains unsettled with a broad cyclonic flow and maybe the effects of the front still in place on Monday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty a lack of consensus among the model guidance. So will keep with a chance of showers and storms across the board on Monday as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Brief IFR conditions are expected early this morning as a cold front pushes through the area. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will likely linger into the mid to late morning hours, followed by VFR conditions as high pressure and drier air move in. Winds today will become quite gusty out of the NW at around 25-30 knots. Winds diminish this evening, especially after sunset. Outlook... Late Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers. Friday... Slowly becoming VFR with a few lingering showers. Saturday... Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJG