278 
FXUS63 KEAX 110444
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2019

Satellite and surface observations show clear skies dominating the 
Central Plains as a surface ridge slides into and across the 
Nation. The ridge is being driven by a trough that is sweeping 
into the Great Lakes this afternoon, thus allowing the surface 
high to continue to move east over the next 24 hours. The surface
ridge will get a extra push as the prevailing westerlies buckle 
across the Plains; allowing another trough to dig in and sweep 
through the region Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in a 
weak cold frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, on the 
backside of the exiting surface high, which will also bring a 
decent chance of storms. On the up side, storms are not expected 
to be severe, or likely to result in any flash flooding, and 
temperatures will remain seasonally cool through the end of the 
work week due to the trough driving the cold front Tuesday night. 
But, more storms might arrive over the weekend as a series of 
shortwave troughs zip across the Great Basin into the Plains 
behind the exiting Tuesday/Wednesday trough.

For the next 24 hours, conditions will be quite nice for early June 
as the surface highs moves east. However, Tuesday night into 
Wednesday, the trough digging into the Plains is expected to push a 
weak cold front across the region. While current conditions across 
the Plains are a bit dry, given the cool surface high, we expect 
some moisture return during the day Tuesday, as the wind veers to 
the south on the backside of the ridge. This will help set the stage 
for storms Tuesday evening into Wednesday with moisture return 
allowing precipitable water values to recover from their current 
values in the half inch range. That said, moisture recovery, at 
best, will only get local readings into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch 
range by Tuesday night. There will be some instability to work 
with Tuesday into Wednesday, but the lack of poor convergence 
along the front, and modest shear, point at the storms Tuesday 
night into Wednesday not having much, if any, severe threat. 
Adding in the lack of abnormal moisture, and the progressive 
nature of Teusday's front, and flash flooding does not look to be
a threat either. Though, it should be noted that any rain will 
keep the Missouri in flood that much longer. 

Once the front moves through Wednesday we can expect a couple of 
cool days, with temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday ranging 
through the 70s. We will see a return of more normal June 
temperatures by the weekend, with reading in the 80s, but this will 
also arrive with more storm chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period.
Surface ridge across the region will allow for calm to light and
variable winds through 16Z before becoming more southerly. A cold
front will work in from the north late in the period increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms after 00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...PPietrycha