918 FXUS63 KICT 102055 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 355 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Tonight: Quiet weather continues across all areas as fairly large sfc high remains anchored from W TX to IA & IL thru early Tue morning. Tue & Tue Night: Thunderstorms are still scheduled to arrive Central KS late Tue afternoon then spread across KICT Country Tue eve as a 90-110kt jet knifes almost due S from Saskatchewan across most of KS later Tue night. This character will drive a cold front into Central KS Tue evening then across South-Central KS later Tue night with the front lurking in Southeast KS very early Wed morning. Although the projected moisture is not overly impressive, the 850-mb theta-E advection increases considerably in the afternoon. Temperatures should only reach ~80F but destabilization should be likewise be sufficient to enable the thunderstorms to reach severity. The approaching front coupled with the approaching & strengthening jet would induce pronounced deep-layer shear, both speed & directional, across KS late Tue afternoon & early evening. As such can still see the potential for hail around 1 inch diameter in Central & to a lesser extent South-Central KS Tue afternoon & eve.. The severe mode then transitions to damaging winds later Tue eve. Wed & Wed Night: Quiet weather quickly returns as a strong NW regime sends weak lower-deck high pressure SE across KS. Thu & Thu Night: Thunderstorms quickly return Thu eve & especially Thu night as the next mid-level shortwave moves E across the Great Plains. This wave isn't nearly as strong so thunderstorms would behave from a severity standpoint. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Overall the forecast is essentially unchanged with several bouts of thunderstorms. It now appears the greatest thunderstorm potential would occur Fri night when a stronger mid-upper short wave surges E/SE across the Northern & Central Plains. It would be during these periods that thunderstorms would be strongest. Forecast Builder removed PoPs from nearly all areas Sat afternoon but with the front lurking about the premises with more-than-ample moisture pooling along it coupled with the approaching shortwave, 20-30% PoPs were reinstated, especially across South-Central and Southeast KS. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. Surface high pressure ridge will move east of the area tonight, allowing a return southerly flow to develop and increasing on Tuesday. An increase in altocumulus, perhaps ACCAS, is expected Tuesday morning within mid-level warm advection zone ahead of an approaching shortwave upper trof. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 56 78 58 77 / 0 10 30 0 Hutchinson 55 79 57 76 / 0 20 40 0 Newton 55 76 57 75 / 0 10 40 0 ElDorado 55 76 56 76 / 0 10 30 0 Winfield-KWLD 55 78 58 78 / 0 10 40 0 Russell 55 79 56 75 / 10 20 20 0 Great Bend 56 80 56 75 / 0 20 20 0 Salina 54 78 56 76 / 0 20 50 0 McPherson 55 78 57 75 / 0 20 40 0 Coffeyville 54 78 59 78 / 0 0 70 10 Chanute 54 77 58 76 / 0 0 60 10 Iola 54 76 58 76 / 0 0 60 10 Parsons-KPPF 53 77 59 78 / 0 0 70 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...KED