297 FXUS63 KPAH 102006 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 306 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph will quickly decrease early this evening. Dry conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday night, before our next system returns rain chances to the region on Wednesday. Stubborn low clouds that have affected our eastern counties should clear the region shortly as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes pivots eastward. Surface high pressure over western Kansas this afternoon will become centered over the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday. As it does so, winds will become light overnight. A shortwave will move into the Dakotas tomorrow and slide southeastward into our region on Wednesday. This will cause a cold front to move through leading to scattered showers/storms by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Enough instability/shear may be present to support a strong storm or two, with the best probability occurring in our far west/northwest counties. Temperatures will average below normal with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the 50s the next couple of days. Can't even rule out a few localized upper 40s tonight in southern Illinois, given the dry air and light winds overnight. Unseasonably low humidity levels will be felt with dew points in the upper 40s and 50s through the short term and beyond. This is somewhat rare to get a prolonged stretch of comfortable air like this in the middle of June. Better enjoy it while it lasts! .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Models show weak high pressure sliding east across the PAH forecast area on Thursday, moving over the southeast U.S. by Friday. Dry and cool conditions with low humidity will continue Thursday into Thursday night. With the surface high to our east on Friday, south to southwest winds will return and begin a rebound in temperatures and dew points. Models show a surface low moving into the Great Lakes region late Saturday into Saturday night. This low will slowly drag a cold front toward the PAH forecast area Friday and into the weekend. A few showers are possible in our far west counties Friday afternoon, with shower chances spreading across our entire area Friday night. Showers and some thunderstorms are possible across the region Saturday, but better chances are expected Saturday night and especially Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front lays out north of our region and slowly sinks south. Went generally in the high chance to likely categories late Saturday night into Sunday night, but if models stay fairly consistent with each other in timing, these pops will probably be increased. Models show the front still in the area Monday, and continued with good chances for showers and some storms. The return of southerly flow will result in high temperatures over the weekend near seasonal readings, with overnight lows above normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Stubborn MVFR cigs over Pennyrile of west KY should rapidly clear out by 19z or so. Otherwise, main impact today is gusty northwest winds up to 25-30 kts. The winds will decrease quite quickly this evening, and become light/nearly calm overnight into the early morning as surface high pressure moves in. Winds will switch around to the E/NE during the morning hours tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022. && $$ SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...SP