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FXUS64 KLUB 100756
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
256 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Very unseasonable temperatures will spread over the area today
with periodic precipitation chances over the next week.

Surface ridging will settle into the region this afternoon finally
allowing winds to decrease. This will also act to advect in
further drier air at the surface. Thicknesses will continue to
fall throughout the day today. Mostly cloudy conditions in 
combination with the drier air will lead to temperatures on the 
order of 15-20 degrees below seasonal averages. A short wave
trough currently observed on water vapor imagery near the
California/Arizona border will attempt to affect our weather
tonight. This short wave will approach the region tonight and will
in fact generate some lift overhead. However, this will translate
into little in the way of any precipitation chances. As previously
mentioned, very dry low levels will act to prevent any
precipitation from reaching the surface. The short wave will only
have some mid and upper level moisture to work with.

Much better chances of precipitation will occur Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. An upper ridge will amplify over the
western CONUS on Tuesday leading to northwest flow aloft locally.
An upper level jet streak will dive down on the eastern side of
this ridge placing the exit region close to the area. Although
better lift will be to the northeast of the area. A cold front
will also be making its way southward across the high Plains with
this system. Elevated instability will promote strong thunderstorm updrafts
with small but non-zero chances of severe weather. The
aforementioned cold front will push through the rest of the area
Wednesday but low level moisture will be able to quickly recover
on Thursday.

For the second half of the week, the western CONUS ridging will
flatten out. A few short waves will be moving through the flow
aloft which will generate our periodic thunderstorm chances late
in the week beginning on Thursday. Models are in fair agreement in
generating convection off the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa and
bringing it east-southeast.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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