414 
FXUS63 KOAX 100753
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

The primary forecast concerns are precipitation chances starting 
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. 

Temperatures were much cooler than normal on Sunday, with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Today should be warmer, and have trended
at or above the warmer MOS guidance. Look for highs mainly in the
upper 70s to around 80. Skies will be sunny or mostly sunny with
west or northwest winds. 

Surface ridge axis will shift off to the southeast tonight, with
winds turning to the south. Some showers and thunderstorms could
develop in northeast NE, mainly after midnight, in association
with a weak wave and a 30 to 45 knot low level jet that will
stretch from western KS through central NE. Instability should be
fairly weak, so the chance of any strong storms is fairly low.
Precipitable water (PW) values also remain mainly under an inch, 
so rainfall amounts should be on the light side. 

On Tuesday, PW values increase to around 1.25 inches during the 
day ahead of the next cold front. The atmosphere should 
destabilize in the afternoon, but ML CAPE values are currently 
expected to remain under 2000 J/kg. The Day 2 SPC outlook shows a 
marginal risk of severe storms for parts of our area, and that 
seems reasonable. Highest storm chances will be along and ahead of
the cold front that will be pushing through the region. Storm 
chances will linger into the evening, but after that there are 
varying model solutions in regards to potential for precipitation.
Added some POPs for later Tuesday night and even into Wednesday 
morning. For now have kept rain chances less than 20 percent for 
Wednesday afternoon, but some 00z model guidance (especially the 
ECMWF) suggests some showers will be possible. It will be a bit 
cooler on Wednesday, with highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower
70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

The period from Wednesday night into Thursday evening looks
mainly dry for the local area. The mid level pattern is expected
to feature a ridge from NV up into Saskatchewan, with a trough
from Hudson Bay southward into IL. As the southern part of the
trough lifts to the northeast, and the ridge to the west flattens,
the flow across the central part of the Plains will turn more
zonal. Heights will gradually increase through the weekend,
allowing temperatures to moderate a little. Look for highs in the
70s Thursday, then mid 70s to lower 80s Friday through Sunday. 

Will have a slight chance to chance of showers and storms for much
of the period from Thursday night through Sunday. At this time,
the highest rain chances are currently expected for Thursday 
night, Friday night and Saturday night. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds 
will turn more westerly during the day Monday. Otherwise, expect 
high clouds to increase at the far end of the TAF period at OFK, 
ahead of the next approaching front. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...HB