710 FXUS61 KBTV 100725 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Northeast this morning will give way a moisture-laden frontal system late in the day with widespread rain showers developing from west to east this evening and continuing until Tuesday morning. Drying and developing partly sunny skies are expected by Tuesday afternoon, with high pressure returning for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Unsettled weather develops again for the end of the work week and potentially continues into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM EDT Monday...No big changes for the next 36 hours from what we've been highlighting over the past several days. Morning surface and satellite analysis shows surface high pressure over New England coastal waters while aloft an upper ridge is centered almost directly over the North Country. An upper trough and associated vorticity and surface cold front is working eastward towards the western Great Lakes, which will encroach upon our western CWA late in the day towards the evening rush hour. With that in mind, today will start quiet with some scattered cirrus at sunrise and temps varying widely from the 40s and 50s to locally 60s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys where overnight southerly flow persisted. South-southwesterly flow will increase through the day ahead of the approaching cold front with wind gusts of up to 25 mph expected, especially in the Champlain Valley. Clouds increase from the southwest becoming cloudy across northwest New York this afternoon which will help to cap high temps in the 70s, while eastward where more sun persists temps will warm back in the 80s for another day. Dewpoints creep up a bit from yesterday, but will still be very comfortable in the 40s. Around 4-5 PM a sharp increase in PW's ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary shifts into northern New York which will mark the onset of light rain that will spread northeastward over the forecast area during the overnight hours. PW's between 1.5-2" will support a period of moderate rainfall from midnight to sunrise before the front rapidly shifts east of the Connecticut River by mid-day Tuesday. Owing to the progressive nature of the system, QPF won't be outrageous despite being so moisture laden with total rainfall amounts generally ranging from 2/3" to locally around 1" with some orographic enhancement across the higher terrain. Behind the frontal passage Tuesday, winds will once again become gusty, this time from the west-northwest and stronger in the 20-30 mph range which will help to scour out low level moisture and develop some breaks of sunshine by the afternoon. Lows tonight will be mild under cloud cover and precip in the mid 50s to low 60s, and highs Tuesday will run slightly below normal under modest cold air advection in the mid 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...Rainfall will exit off to the east quickly Tuesday morning with much of the North Country dry by mid-morning. The only exception to this will be across eastern Vermont, generally east of the Green Mountains, where pockets of moderate to heavy rain may persist until about noon. Following the passage of the strong cold front, dry air will quickly filter into the region which will bring rapidly clearing skies Tuesday afternoon. Due to the drier air moving into the region, forecast soundings show some pretty decent mixing which will help bring down some gusty northwest winds down to the surface. When combined with the decent pressure gradient on the backside of the front, winds will easily gust in the 20 to 35 mph range through the afternoon hours. Heading into Tuesday night, the gradient flow will persist, albeit weakening, while mixing shuts down as the boundary layer decouples. This will set up the potential for widespread fog across the North Country given decreasing gradient flow, mostly clear skies and recent rainfall from Monday night/Tuesday morning. Have opted only to include the climatological favored locations at this time as the gradient flow may limit overall coverage of fog. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will see the return of drier conditions as a shortwave ridge moves across the North Country. Subsidence with this feature should keep the skies mostly clear on Wednesday as temperatures rebound back into the 70s region wide. With increasing gradient flow with the surface high moving to the east Wednesday night and a surface low deepening across the Great Lakes, it doesn't appear as if much fog will be possible. Models are struggling to handle the next cold front on Thursday as different guidance either consolidates all of the energy across the Great Lakes or splits the energy between the Great Lakes and a coastal low over the New England coast. The consolidated low would bring more rainfall than the split energy approach to the region. Nevertheless, rainfall is in store for much of Thursday with this feature expected to work through the region. Looking at Friday and heading into the weekend, the weather doesn't look all that bad. We will remain under the influence of a strengthening upper level low. It doesn't appear as if any day will be completely wet but several disturbances, which are hard to track this far out, will rotate through the North Country and bring some showers Friday and through the weekend. Temperatures through the period will remain near normal with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR will largely prevail through the daylight hours as a frontal system approaches the area but lower vsby/cigs will arrive by 00-03Z across western New York and 03-06Z for the Champlain Valley eastward. Overnight FEW-SCT250 persists and gradually thickens/lowers after 12Z to 080-100 by 00Z and eventually to MVFR as precipitation moves into the region late. Light and variable winds for all sites through 12Z except 5-10kts at KRUT/KBTV, then winds pick up area-wide to 8-12kts with some gusts locally to 20kts after 14-16Z. In addition, late in the period some LLWS is likely at KSLK as a low level jet works into the region. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Lahiff