360 FXUS64 KHUN 100547 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 903 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 An upper-low will continue to meander across the Tennessee Valley region overnight. This, along with lingering outflow boundaries, will provide the necessary lift to generate/maintain isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight, especially across Northeast Alabama. Deep moisture remains in place across the area as seen observed PWAT values of close to 2 inches. Thus, any shower that develops will have the potential to be an efficient rainfall producer, and a quick 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall will not be uncommon underneath the heaviest cores. For this reason, some very localized flooding concerns will exist across portions of North Central and Northeast Alabama that have already received heavy rainfall over the last 24-36 hours. However, unlike the past couple nights there will be a caveat. The center of the upper-low will continue to approach the AL/GA border by late tonight into early Monday morning. This will place the better forcing slightly further to the east and should result in a gradual diminishment of PoPs over the course of the night, especially west of I-65. Otherwise, expect another mild and humid night as cloud cover and high dewpoints will keep temperatures steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 The upper level trough will finally make a big push to the northeast and exit the area during the early part of the new work week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on Monday, with activity much like we've seen today. While the greater potential will exist east of I-65, mesoscale boundaries may lead to some scattered convective initiation across the east. Still not looking at any strong/severe threat given the weak forcing and shear. Drier air will also be moving into the region, so the flash flooding threat will be very low. Highs on Monday will be similar to those today, with temps warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The upper trough will become observed in the longwave pattern aloft, with flow over the TN Valley becoming more zonal Monday night. This will bring drier air and an end to the precip chances across the area. The dry conditions will persist through the day on Tuesday and into the overnight hours, as high pressure keeps northerly surface flow over the area. Temperatures will be on the cool side, despite partly cloudy skies, with highs on warming into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night will fall into the upper 50s thanks to radiational cooling. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 A second upper trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley early Wednesday morning, with flow aloft becoming southerly. At the surface, another cold front will cross the Mississippi River during the early to mid morning hours. The cold front will move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, however moisture recovery will be limited. There will be enough moisture and forcing associated with this system to generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the TN Valley. But we are not expecting much QPF with this activity. Rain chances will quickly end by Thursday as the axis of the upper trough pushes east of the area. This will leave northerly flow aloft and at the surface in its wake, with a continued period of below normal temperatures. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will only warm into the mid to upper 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s. By Friday, another trough will begin to take shape to our west, with flow aloft becoming southwesterly. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Gulf will shift winds to the south. This will begin a warming trend for the latter half of the long term period, with temps on Friday warming into the lower to mid 80s and then into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 60s Friday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 VFR weather should continue into the overnight over most of area. However, with generally clear skies, light winds, and residual moisture from recent rainfall, areas west of Huntsville could experience predawn fog development. Given uncertainties on timing and locations, did not include fog in the TAF this issuance. But the formation of MVFR cloud bases look more probable after 09Z over areas near and west of I-65. A return to VFR conditions is expected in the late morning, as low clouds break up and drier air gradually filters over the region from the west. Light winds tonight will become NW after daybreak, increasing to around 10kt by 15z. Winds should veer more to the north in the afternoon in the 10-15kt range. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM...73 AVIATION...RSB For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.