299 FXUS63 KILX 090124 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 00Z KILX raob indicated around 400 J/kg MUCAPE still present this evening, rooted within the boundary layer though so anticipate precip coverage to wane as the boundary layer stabilizes this evening. Have lowered PoPs for most of the area this evening, except downstream of where precip is already showing up on radar, but do maintain at least an isolated mention for a shower through the overnight hours as we remain under the influence of the upper low over the lower Ohio Valley. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Mid afternoon surface map shows 1006 mb low pressure over mid TN with a surface trof extending up into southeast IL. 1024 mb high pressure over Quebec was ridging across the Great Lakes and giving breezy ENE winds over central IL with gusts 20-30 mph. Tropical airmass in place over southern IL with dewpoints in the lower 70s along and south of highway 50. Meanwhile lower dewpoints in the low to mid 60s over much of central IL, lowest along and ne of I-74. 3 pm temps ranged from mid 70s near the Wabash river, to the low to mid 80s over much of central IL from I-72 north. Mostly Skies had clouded up over much of CWA by mid afternoon with mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with more peaks of sunshine nw of IL river. Radar mosaic shows isolated light rain showers drifting WNW over central IL while more numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms were in tropical airmass se of CWA. 978 dm 500 mb low over mid TN will drift slowly northward across western TN during Sunday as it weakens to 582 dm. Latest CAM models showing isolated to scattered convection thru Sunday evening, with highest pops in southeast IL especially on Sunday. Thunderstorms chances wane after dusk this evening as instability weakens. Instability increases again by midday Sunday with diurnal cycle and brings back chances of thunderstorms. Lows tonight mostly in the mid 60s, with some upper 60s near the Wabash river. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80F with mostly cloudy to overcast skies through the day Sunday and lighter NNE winds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 A cold front over the eastern Dakotas into central Nebraska will push east across CWA during Sunday night and will help push upper level low/trof further east of IL overnight Sunday night and Monday, diminishing chances of showers, with decreasing clouds on Monday. Lows Sunday night range from upper 50s to near 60F over the IL river valley, to the mid 60s in southeast IL. Cooler highs Monday mostly in the mid 70s with breezy NNW winds bringing drier/less humid air. Lows Monday night in the lower 50s, with some mid 50s sw CWA and southeast IL. 1023 mb high pressure settles into IL by midday Tuesday bringing dry and nice weather with mostly sunny skies, lighter winds and highs in the upper 70s. A northern stream short wave trof digs into the Midwest Tue night, with a cold front moving into nw WI and central IA by dawn Wed. This to bring 20-30% chance of convection to the IL river valley late Tue night. Strong cold front to sweep se through central IL Wed afternoon, likely bringing showers and chance of thunderstorms on Wed, though not reaching southeast IL until Wed afternoon. Chances of convection then diminish by overnight Wed night behind cold front. Highs Wed range from lower 70s nw of the IL river, to the upper 70s in southeast IL. Deep upper level trof over IL yet on Thu to bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm especially ne CWA. Cool highs Thu in the upper 60s and lower 70s, coolest from I-74 ne. Lows Thu night in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s possible. Dry weather expected Thu night after sunset thru Friday with highs Fri in the mid to upper 70s. The 12Z GFS model is bringing another system se into IL late Thu night and Friday, though ECMWF and GEM models are drier and followed. Next chance of showers and thunderstorms is Fri night and next Saturday with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 A few spotty showers are ongoing across portions of central Illinois this evening, with the greatest concentration of showers occurring between CMI and BMI and lifting northwest. Showers will likely continue over the next couple hours, but coverage should further diminish with sunset this evening. Meanwhile, MVFR ceilings currently over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys are progged to spread northwest across central Illinois overnight, reaching the terminals during the predawn hours Sunday. Ceilings should bottom out early in the morning, and cannot rule out IFR, though confidence in widespread IFR is low at this time. There should be gradual diurnal improvement through the day back to higher end MVFR, if not scattering out or lifting to VFR during the afternoon. Additional showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible again on Sunday, though as the day progresses the threat should become centered closer to the IL/IN state line. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Deubelbeiss