475 
FXUS65 KFGZ 082045
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
145 PM MST Sat Jun 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A dry and warm weekend is in store for northern
Arizona. Early next week there is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly on Monday across Apache and Navajo Counties.
Otherwise, the warming trend will continue next week with the 
highest temperatures of the season so far. Unsettled weather is
possible by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large scale trough is moving through the Northern
Rockies and Great Basin today and has pushed a dry cool front into
the northwestern corner of AZ, where it will stall until later
tonight. Elsewhere across northern AZ, skies remain clear with 
west to southwest winds. Temperatures should reach near or 
slightly above average this afternoon. Smoke from the Cold Water 
fire will continue to affect areas from Clints Well and Hwy 87 
northeast toward Winslow. 

The aforementioned cool front will sag southward across the area
tonight, shifting winds to the north tonight through Sunday. These
northerly winds may be locally breezy along the Mogollon Rim
Sunday morning. Sunday's temperatures will cool a few degrees
north of the Rim, but warm a few degrees for areas south of the
Rim that are less affected by the front.

Warming temperatures will arrive next week as high pressure 
strengthens over the West Coast. Expect the warmest temperatures 
yet this season early in the week, likely peaking on Wednesday. 
Mostly dry weather is expected, except for a brief increase in 
moisture across eastern Arizona that will bring a chance for 
thunderstorms on Monday. Longer range models show a trough 
undercutting the large scale ridge by late next week or weekend 
which could lead to more unsettled weather. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue for 
the next 24 hours. Surface winds 10-20 kts through 02Z diminishing 
to near 5 kts through 09z then becoming northwest to northeast at 5-
15 kts. Smoke from area wildfires could impact visibility at times 
around KINW through 12z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry weather will continue on Sunday. 
Of note, winds from a northerly direction at 5 to 15 mph on Sunday 
associated with a dry weather disturbance. Monday will see further 
warming but with a chance of thunderstorms east of a Payson-Four 
Corners line. Elsewhere, remaining dry. Southwest breezes returning. 

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions 
will persist with west-southwest afternoon breezes each day. A 
slight chance of high based thunderstorms over the White 
Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff