741 
FXUS64 KCRP 072035
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
335 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Saturday night)...

The main story during the short term period will continue to be
the heat. Heat indices from the more reliable surface observing 
sites across the CWA have been generally ranging from 105 to 114. 
A few locations across the southern Coastal Plains have even been 
flirting occasionally hitting 115 before dropping down again. 
These high heat indices are expected to continue through early 
evening and the Heat Advisories/SPSs remain in effect until 8 PM 
CDT. Temperatures are expected to remain warm overnight with lows 
ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Another round of dangerously hot and humid temperatures are
expected Saturday afternoon. Heat indices will once again range 
from the 105 to 115 range. Heat Advisories/SPSs will once again be
required for the entire CWA. Excessive Heat Warnings may even be 
needed for southern portions of the Coastal Plain. However, there 
is uncertainty that heat indices will be able to exceed 115 for a
prolonged period of time due to mixing of surface dewpoints. 
Therefore, given how this weekend's heat has been well advertised,
have elected to hold off on assigning any heat related products 
for tomorrow to allow later shifts to further evaluate where 
SPSs/Advisories/Warnings may be needed for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs continue to predict a quasi-stationary 
upper low/trough over the ERN CONUS with an upper ridge over TX 
Sunday. Expect very high heat index values Sunday afternoon over the 
CWA. Will forecast a 10% POP over the ERN CWA as a compromise 
between the upper ridge and near/above normal PWAT values/ 
significant CAPE/limited afternoon CIN (GFS deterministic.) In 
response to an upper disturbance predicted to move across the 
Plains Sunday/Sunday night, a frontal boundary is expected to 
enter the CWA Sunday night/early Monday. The combination of the 
front and above normal PWAT values will contribute to 
isolated/scattered convection Monday. The GFS/ECMWF predict a weak
upper disturbance to move across the region Tuesday/Tuesday 
night, and contribute to additional isolated/scattered convection.
A transition to no significant precipitation by Thursday, as the 
upper ridge builds over the region again from the west. 

&&

.MARINE... 

Fair navigating conditions are expected through the weekend with
light winds and seas of generally three feet or less. Isolated/
scattered convection returns on Monday owing to a frontal 
boundary/sufficient moisture. Additional convection Tuesday 
through at least early Wednesday due to an upper disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  99  78  99  78  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Victoria          73  98  75  99  76  /   0   0   0  10  20 
Laredo            80 109  81 110  80  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Alice             75 103  77 103  77  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Rockport          78  93  80  92  80  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Cotulla           76 107  78 109  78  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Kingsville        77 101  78 101  77  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  91  81  /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening For the following 
     zones: Coastal Aransas...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
     Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Inland Kleberg...Inland 
     Nueces...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TWH/99...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM