009 FXUS64 KBMX 062057 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 357 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019 .SHORT TERM... Through Tonight. Widespread light to moderate rain has moved through most of the area today, with much of the more persistent rainfall now exiting to the east. In its wake, cloud cover has decreased as drier mid level air spread in the area. With the continued approach of surface upper level lows, there is enough lift and instability for scattered showers behind the exiting rain. Cannot rule out a few lightning strikes as well. As the surface low rotates northward through Mississippi and into southern Tennessee late tonight, showers will increase in coverage overnight, with the best chances across the northeast. Most of the area stand a 50-60 percent chance of additional rainfall through midnight. 14 .LONG TERM... /Issued at 315 AM CT/ Friday through Thursday. The very slow-moving vertically stacked low dips through the Mid-MS Valley and over the Gulf States Friday. This will lead to synoptic height falls, increased moisture with the southerly flow, and therefore, higher rain and thunderstorm chances for Central AL. Overall, I expect the showers and thunderstorms to be scattered in nature at any one time. High resolution guidance suggests more isolated cells vs. widespread stratiform precipitation. It will be difficult to nail down exactly when it will rain/storm at any particular location, but I feel confident enough that over any 6-12 hour period, most areas will see precipitation. Therefore, I have continued mentioning 60-80% PoPs Friday and Saturday. There could be a relative decrease in coverage overnight Saturday into Sunday, but I'll keep at least 50% chance of rain/storms mentioned for now because coverage will increase again for Sunday afternoon areawide. This pattern continues through Monday before another trough swings through the Great Plains, and slowly pushes the low pressure system to our east Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance continues to vary on exactly when the rain/storm chances begin to taper, so I've held on to at least a 20-30% for the eastern half of Central AL through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures during this time (Friday through Tuesday) should remain in the low to mid 80s, though I would expect quite a bit of variability based on when and where the rain develops across the area. The main concerns for this system will be the prolonged rainfall, which could lead to flooding concerns, especially in poor drainage areas. PWATs remain on the higher end of climatology, so some storms will likely be very effective rain producers, capable of high rain rates. Confidence remains low in just how much coverage these more convective storms will be, so I will not add mention of flooding in the HWO at this time. There's quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday as the second main trough axis swings through the area. Latest guidance suggests this will remain a drier system, limiting any precip chances, but previous runs hinted at another wave of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. I have included 15-20% chance for rain/storms and will adjust once we have more run to run consistency in the guidance. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Periods of rain and MVFR cigs will continue across Central Alabama this afternoon, with activity gradually becoming more scattered as an initial area of widespread light to moderate rainfall pushes to the north and east. As cloud cover also becomes more scattered, thunderstorms will become possible. Stronger showers and storms will produce heavier rain and lower vis. Scattered coverage will continue overnight, with cigs lowering to at or below 1kft. Through the period, winds will be from the southeast, up to 10kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Extended period of wet weather will continue through the weekend, with elevated rain chances each period. This, combined with high RHs values should limit any fire weather concerns across the area. Can't rule out low clouds and fog each morning in the next few days as grounds become saturated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 83 68 82 67 / 80 80 70 80 60 Anniston 70 83 69 82 69 / 80 80 70 80 60 Birmingham 72 84 70 83 69 / 60 80 70 80 60 Tuscaloosa 72 86 71 84 70 / 60 80 70 70 60 Calera 70 84 69 83 69 / 60 80 70 80 60 Auburn 71 82 69 81 69 / 70 80 70 80 60 Montgomery 72 87 71 85 71 / 60 80 70 80 60 Troy 71 85 71 84 70 / 60 80 70 80 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$