286 FXUS64 KLUB 062031 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 331 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019 .DISCUSSION... The upper low/trough that has been hanging around to our west for quite some time, in one form or another, is now shifting off to our east across the Sooner State. Light wrap around showers have been lingering over our far northeastern counties much of the day. This activity has recently faded, but enough heating/destabilization has occurred on the periphery of the rain/clouds to spark additional isolated convection over the central Texas Panhandle. This activity is drifting southward and could affect roughly the eastern half of the FA through the late afternoon hours before quickly fading with the sun this evening. Relatively meager instability, vertical wind shear and forcing should keep the overall coverage and intensity of the storms in check, though gusty outflow winds and a brief downpour will be possible. A surface ridge will sag in late tonight providing clear skies and light winds. A little patchy ground fog could attempt to form near daybreak, but at this point it looks like it would be spotty and we have left any mention out of the grids. Winds will gradually return to a southerly component Friday afternoon as the surface ridge shifts eastward and temperatures will warm well into the 80s as upper ridging builds over from the west. It will be even hotter on Saturday as heights/thicknesses continue to increase. Temperatures will soar into the 90s, with a few spots across the southwestern South Plains flirting with triple digits. The dryline will sharpen somewhere from the I-27 Corridor to the edge of the Caprock by late afternoon, but soundings show a decent cap in place east of the dryline, so storms appear unlikely. A large and fairly potent trough (for June) will be traversing the Midwest and points north by late weekend and this will send a cold front southward. Both the ECMWF and NAM push the front quickly through during the day Sunday, while the GFS is slower to do so. This will have ramifications on both temperatures and PoPs, with a later FROPA meaning warmer/hotter conditions and perhaps better storm chances. We tended to side toward the majority of solutions, but have gone somewhat in the middle in the deterministic grids. At minimum, cooler air and post-frontal stratus will spill in behind the FROPA and temperatures will likely stay down in the 70s (maybe 60s for spots) by Monday. Rain/storm chances are more iffy, but elevated convection could be possible as early as Sunday afternoon/evening, with continued chances into early next week as a disturbance is forecast to round the subtropical ridge which will be centered over northern Mexico. The big question mark is how far south the front moves and whether or not we'll have sufficient low level moisture and instability to support decent rain chances. We are not sold on the rain chances Sunday night into Monday, and have lowered PoPs from the blended guidance, but have still maintained low chance PoPs at this point. A period of northwest flow aloft atop improving low-level moisture will keep storm chances in the forecast through the middle of next week, when overnight storm chances will be most favored. Temperatures will moderate through the middle of next week with highs bouncing back into the 80s. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 23