539 
FXUS64 KLUB 061143
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
643 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.AVIATION...
Upper low pressure continues passing overhead with some thickening
mid and high clouds through the morning mainly north and east of
KLBB. Perhaps light showers also developing near or a little 
north of KCDS so added VCSH for the morning. Airmass remains 
nearly saturated vicinity KLBB especially but light downslope 
component persists and not seeing indications of ground fog while 
solutions avoid development as well, so retaining VFR forecast. 
This afternoon, short range solutions continue generating 
scattered thunder nearest KCDS but also not far from KPVW. We have
added VCTS to KCDS after 21Z until 01Z when stable airmass should
again dominate. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Upper level low will continue to exit the region today and as this 
occurs showers will be possible across the eastern CWA. Out west, 
drier mid and low level air will filer into the area as short wave 
ridging aloft develops over the Desert Southwest. Tomorrow, the riding 
will continue to push east and by Saturday the ridge axis will 
intersect the CWA from the SW to the NE. The ridge will limit 
convection and allow temperatures to rise above normal. Friday and 
Saturday will both be warm days with Saturday being the warmest as 
temperatures peak in the upper 90s.

The "warm-up" will be short lived. Sunday afternoon, a fairly stout 
(for this time of year) cold front will move southward through the 
FA bringing low level moisture back to the FA. As a result Monday 
will be a cool and cloudy day. There is some uncertainty as to 
whether or not convection will occur Monday afternoon across the 
western portions of the CWA. Shortwave energy passing over the 
region could help convection develop in eastern NM and if the upper 
flow becomes more northwesterly storms could propagate into our 
area. Thus, we will maintain a chance of storms in the PoPs. Tuesday 
through the latter part of the week as ridging builds over the 
western CONUS the CWA will be solidly under NW flow aloft. As a 
result the South Plains will have an almost daily chance of
storms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05