396 
FXUS63 KUNR 061045
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
445 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Upper ridging is building across the Northern Plains this morning as 
a deep upper low moves onto the Pac NW coast. Deep southeast low 
level flow across the area is bringing warming temperatures to the 
area. Highs today will reach will into the 80s across the lower 
elevations, and 70s to near 80 across the Black Hills. Aside from 
maybe an isolated storm or two across the Black Hills area this 
afternoon, no precipitation is expected today or tonight. The Pac NW 
storm system will slide into the northern Rockies/Canadian Rockies 
tonight into Friday. Models continue to show a strong cold front 
crossing the CWA sometime late Friday or Friday night. Ahead of the 
front, temps are expected to reach the 80s to low 90s across the 
CWA. It then looks like the frontal boundary will cross the area 
mostly in the evening hours. With strong instability ahead of the 
boundary and decent shear, strong to severe thunderstorms are 
expected to develop, especially across northwest SD into North 
Dakota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.
Lingering showers are expected Saturday, with cooler, more mild
temperatures through the weekend into the first half of next week.
Daily chances for precip will also continue into next week as a
somewhat active northwest flow persists across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 444 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Isolated TSRA may develop across the Black Hills this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...7