833 
FXUS64 KMEG 050448
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

We are starting to see an increase in convection where
temperatures have climbed into the low 90s. Storms this afternoon
are not expected to be severe, but could result in brief gusty
wind, locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  

The main focus for this afternoons weather update is the potential
for heavy rain beginning as early as tomorrow afternoon and
continuing through the weekend. WPC has a solid 3-4 inches across
the entire Midsouth. I am a bit worried that this forecast may
turn out to be on the low end. Precipitable water values are 
expected to surge above two inches midday tomorrow and stay 
between 2.0 and 2.2 inches through Sunday afternoon. 
Climatologically, these values are in the 99th percentile, of 2-3
standard deviations above normal for early June. The WPC does 
include much of the Midsouth in a Slight risk for excessive 
rainfall on their day 3(Thursday morning through Friday morning) 
outlook. The Hurricane Center has lowered its confidence that a 
disturbance in the Western Gulf of Mexico will develop into a 
Tropical Cyclone, but even as a surface low this feature could 
play a big role in our forecast. If it strengthens and tracks
inland as the ECMWF suggests it will it would only enhance the 
flow of tropical Moisture across the region. Clouds and ongoing 
rainfall may help limit instability, but 25-30KT low level winds 
across Louisiana and into North Mississippi should help feed 
storms across the region. I would not be surprised to see a 
Moderate risk for excessive rainfall at some point after midweek. 
Luckily, we have been relatively dry for a a week or so, so 3-4 
inches of rain over several days shouldn't result in widespread 
problems. however, if the tropical low strengthens or storms 
begin to train over the same area problems could develop quickly. 

If the tropical low wasn't enough, we also have a surface low and
associated trough moving out of the Plains during the end of the 
work week. Guidance is in better agreement today with this trough 
becoming neutrally or negatively tilted over South Missouri and 
North Arkansas and nearly stalling through the weekend. No severe 
thunderstorms are expected, but prepare for a prolonged period of 
heavy rain, possibly up to six inches locally.

Clouds and rain should keep temperatures out of the 90s for the
next week or so and may struggle to climb into the middle 80s
where rain is most persistent.  

The heaviest rain should come to an end Sunday, but showers may 
linger Monday. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

VFR conds are expected mainly outside of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Winds will remain from the south overnight in the 
3-7 kt range. Southwest winds will pick up to 9-12 kts with gusts 
15-20 kts tomorrow afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms should be 
slightly higher tomorrow afternoon, but scattered enough to only 
warrant a VCTS at all sites. Convective activity will diminish 
around sundown as will wind speeds. 

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$