805 FXUS64 KSHV 042357 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 657 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .AVIATION... For the 05/00z TAFs, scattered convection continues across much of Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. Coverage and intensity should gradually decrease by 05/06z, but much of this activity is loosely organized and developing along multiple outflow boundaries. Amendments will likely be needed to handle much of this activity. More convection approaching from Central Texas may affect KLFK and Deep East Texas during the overnight hours, but should remain mostly south of the area before daybreak Wednesday morning. During the day Wednesday, widespread convection will affect the entire area spreading northward as tropical moisture streams into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. VFR ceilings should prevail initially, but MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely for much of the period after 05/12z. CN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Despite weak upper ridging in place today, isolated to widely scattered convection has developed in an increasingly moist and moderately unstable environment with the ridge transitioning east of the region. Behind the departing ridge, increasing SW flow aloft is noted in this transitioning pattern with a shortwave indicated on water vapor imagery across central Texas. The additional lift ahead of this shortwave is likely aiding in the increased showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect a gradual downward trend of this activity through the evening hours with heating loss, but some isolated convection can't be completely ruled out through the overnight hours as temperatures settle back into the lower to mid 70s for lows. Rain chances will really begin to ramp up heading into Wednesday as tropical moisture from the disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico advects northward across Louisiana and the eastern half of Texas, gradually spreading farther north through the day Wednesday as showers and thunderstorms become widespread. These showers and storms will likely be efficient rain producers with rainfall rates approaching an inch or more an hour. For now, have abstained from issuing a Flash Flood Watch due to the high uncertainty on where exactly the heaviest rainfall axis and amounts will be oriented. However, a watch may be issued with future forecast updates based on better model consistency on both amounts and overall coverage. Temperatures will be held in the lower to mid 80s for highs due to the extensive cloud cover and rainfall with overnight lows falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s as showers and thunderstorms prevail through Wednesday night. /19/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ An upper-level low swinging east across the southwestern US to approach eastern Oklahoma by Friday morning. Additionally, moisture from a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico will surge northward, allowing for periods of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Latest storm total QPF estimates from WPC through Saturday morning average around 2 inches with higher amounts approaching 4 inches across portions of northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Upper-low to shift north and east of the region on Saturday with conditions gradually improving from the west. However, could see enough instability across southern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana to support widely scattered afternoon convection. Upper ridge to become better established through early next week with high temperatures climbing from the mid 80s on Friday to lower 90s by Monday. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 82 71 84 / 30 80 80 70 MLU 75 84 71 83 / 20 80 80 80 DEQ 72 85 69 82 / 20 80 70 70 TXK 73 82 70 81 / 20 80 80 70 ELD 72 84 69 82 / 20 80 80 70 TYR 73 82 71 85 / 40 80 70 60 GGG 73 82 71 85 / 40 80 70 70 LFK 74 82 72 87 / 50 80 70 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/35