150 FXUS64 KLCH 040320 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 .DISCUSSION... Inland convection has dissipated with a few showers over the nearshore waters south of Pecan Island. Generally quiet conditions expected tonight into Tuesday with a warm and muggy night giving way to a hot and humid day. A few isolated mainly aftn showers or storms will be possible Tuesday, with rain chcs ramping up significantly by Wednesday into Thursday. Other than some minor tweaks to hourly temps/dewpoints and winds, no changes to the fcst for tonight. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/ DISCUSSION... 00z Taf issuance AVIATION... Radar showing scattered TSRA west of LFT/ARA, moving west thus not expected to affect those terminals. Possibility it may reach LCH in a couple of hours, but likely to dissipate by that time. VFR expected through the period, with light and variable winds this evening and overnight, becoming SE ~8-10 kts by 15z Tuesday. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/ DISCUSSION...Local radar depicting isolated showers and a few thunderstorms over the inland area. Activity will be winding down late this afternoon and early evening with cooling. Expecting a similar pattern to emerge for Tuesday with just enough moisture/instability remaining in place for isolated afternoon convection. Temperatures will continue on the warm side with highs in the low, possibly mid 90s, while strengthening southerlies will maintain a steady stream of low level moisture into the region holding RH values on the humid side. Rain chances will be on the increase going into Wednesday and through Thursday. This as deep tropical moisture associated with a tropical disturbance now over the Bay of Campeche advances northwest and moves onshore over south Texas or northern Mexico over the next day or two. NHC is maintaining a 60 percent chance of tropical development until feature does move inland. Precipitable water values progged to climb to over 2 inches for midweek and with accompanying deep layered lift heavy rainfall potential exists. Storm precip totals now showing 1-1/2 to 3 inches of rainfall will be common across the forecast area and as is always the case, isolated higher amounts will occur. Disturbance will eventually be absorbed by southwest CONUS trof/low moving east across the southern Plains with sharply drier air advecting over the region Friday and rain chances accordingly diminishing. MARINE...A light onshore flow will continue through Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Southerly winds will strengthen for mid-week and rain chances increase as a tropical disturbance now over the Bay of Campeche advances northwest. 23 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 95 74 86 / 0 20 20 70 LCH 75 93 77 88 / 0 20 30 60 LFT 74 95 75 90 / 0 20 30 60 BPT 77 92 78 87 / 10 20 40 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...24