627 FXUS62 KFFC 032300 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 700 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Dry conditions expected over the next 24 hours following the passage of a cold front overnight. Some scattered CU and upper-level cirrus/ smoke expected across the area for the rest of the afternoon. The low-level CU field is expected to continue to thin throughout the afternoon as drier air from the mid-levels gets entrained within the boundary layer. Through the night, high pressure is expected to shift southeastward from the Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic, bringing easterly winds and a great chance for Pops tomorrow with easterly winds carrying the Atlantic coast sea-breeze inland into central Georgia. While CAMs have high confidence in SCT convection for East Central GA tomorrow afternoon the similarities ends there. CAMs mostly shut down convection after nightfall along with the Euro, but the GFS keeps showers persisting in N. GA through tomorrow night. Given such, some isolated showers and storms are in the forecast, but conditions should be watched going forward. Thiem LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Primary concerns in the long term period are timing of higher SHRA/TSRA chances starting Wed and threat for strong convection and/or heavy rain from upper trough and moisture from tropical low this weekend. Upper pattern on the verge of switching over to SW flow aloft in advance of moderately large upper trough embedded in large long wave upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Upper low expected to move from the southern plains moving into the mid-south by the end of the period, however with high over low patterns like this, sometimes can be difficult for models to predict exact track and evolution. 12Z guidance somewhat out of sync with each other by the weekend. NBM and other blended guidance still look good but a little more uncertainty than normal. Still seeing a trend for center of upper low to lift up and over the state this weekend as it moves within flow of longwave eastern CONUS ridge. Could bring a little less rain than feared if this trend continues. Moisture from tropical low currently in the Bay of Campeche should be entrained into flow into the state as soon as Thursday so concerned that some SHRA/TSRA will contain periods of very heavy rain, also could see SHRA continue overnight if moisture is deep enough. With the dramatic increase in moisture and rainfall, will certainly feel a big change from tonight and rest of the week! SNELSON && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with some high clouds for the overnight, then Few-Sct Cu 2000-6000 ft on Tuesday with varying higher clouds. Surface winds W-N diminishing for the overnight becoming ENE then ESE on Tuesday, 7-12 kts with some gusts early, diminishing some for the afternoon. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence to start. Medium confidence on timing of the wind shift. Medium confidence for clouds on Tuesday. BDL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 90 67 89 / 0 10 20 40 Atlanta 68 90 70 88 / 0 10 10 40 Blairsville 58 82 61 81 / 0 5 20 50 Cartersville 63 91 68 89 / 0 5 20 40 Columbus 70 97 71 94 / 0 5 10 30 Gainesville 65 87 68 86 / 0 10 20 40 Macon 69 95 69 93 / 0 20 20 30 Rome 61 91 68 89 / 0 5 20 40 Peachtree City 66 93 68 90 / 5 10 10 30 Vidalia 72 95 71 93 / 0 30 20 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION...BDL