360 FXUS63 KICT 032102 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 402 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 Tonight-Tue: A mid-level shortwave will gradually strengthen as it moves from WY/CO across Northern KS tonight before slowly shearing as it crosses the Missouri Valley on Tue. This would bring a weak sfc trof into Western KS & perhaps Central KS very late tonight and Tue morning. This would bring another batch of showers & thunderstorms east across Northern & Central KS late tonight then across Northeast & Eastern KS Tue morning. The progress of the mid-level, but shearing shortwave should drive the modest convection out of KICT Country Tue morning. Until the shortwave approaches showers & thunderstorms would target Southeast KS this evening. A few thunderstorms occurring across Southeast KS may be quite strong with similar convection venturing across Northern & Central KS late tonight. Tue-Thu Night: Confidence on location of convection is lacking as mid-upper pattern is non-descript. For now nearly all facets of forecast have been kept intact. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 Fri-Mon: The extended range still appears unsettled a strong upper level 500mb trough will slowly push through the region. The main difference between the long range models is how they handle a tropical plume of moisture for the end of the week. The GFS and ECMWF both fully integrate this moisture in and provide a wide areal coverage of convection across the Great Plains. The GFS pulls much of this moisture into the CWA indicating a good chance for some significant rain once again while the ECMWF is a little more progressive with this activity and pushes the bulk of the convection southeast of the CWA. Due to inconsistencies with the extended range, confidence is rather low for the precipitation. Temperature wise, most of the models are more in agreement keeping the temperatures near or a little below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 Convection location and timing remain the primary concern throughout this period. Models continue to struggle with the unstable, marginally capped and weakly forced environment. At this time, appears the HRRR and to a lesser extent the NAM have best handle on ongoing trends. Better moisture is present in southeast KS, and believe recent shower over Elk county is first of an expanding cluster of showers/thunderstorm that will move across southeast KS this afternoon. Suspect rest of the area would remain dry. While storms are likely on high plains again this evening, not clear how far east they will make it, with the northeast quarter of the state more likely to see precipitation than the southeast quarter overnight. Fairly decent signal for low potentially MVFR clouds to roll north late tonight, mainly along/east I-35, as low level moisture surges north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 69 88 67 86 / 40 10 20 30 Hutchinson 69 89 65 86 / 40 10 20 30 Newton 68 88 66 85 / 40 20 20 30 ElDorado 68 87 67 85 / 40 20 20 30 Winfield-KWLD 68 87 67 85 / 30 10 20 30 Russell 65 88 63 87 / 50 0 20 20 Great Bend 66 88 63 86 / 40 0 20 30 Salina 68 89 66 88 / 50 10 30 30 McPherson 68 88 65 86 / 50 10 30 30 Coffeyville 68 87 69 85 / 40 30 10 40 Chanute 68 87 68 86 / 40 40 20 40 Iola 68 86 68 86 / 40 40 20 30 Parsons-KPPF 68 87 69 85 / 40 30 10 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...PJH