916 FXUS64 KSJT 031106 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Leading edge of thunderstorms complex from Brownwood to Brady to Junction was moving east this morning. IFR visibility's in thunderstorms can be expected at KBBD and KJCT through 13Z then light rain and thunder for hour or two. KSJT and KSOA will see rain and thunder ending by 13Z. VFR conditions can be expected through much the rest of day and evening. Another thunderstorm complex may again develop after midnight tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) ..More Rain... The potential for additional rain will continue for another 24 hours, across West Central Texas. Short term models indicate the evolution will be similar to the previous several days, with thunderstorms developing to our west and moving into West Central Texas overnight. With this morning's convection likely lingering until late morning, the best timing for rain today will be mainly before noon. LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) ..Rain Possible Through Mid Week... ..The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged, with an upper trough set to move east, across West Central Texas around mid week. Thus, models continue to to tag the Tuesday night and Wednesday periods for the best rain chances. The GFS 500mb height ensemble field indicate very good agreement among members through at least late week. Thus, confidence remains fairly high regarding timing of the upper trough. Given previous rainfall and GFS-based precipitable water in the 1.5 inches range (forecast sounding centered on San Angelo), concern for possible flash flooding remains high, for the Tuesday through Wednesday periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 85 68 84 67 / 40 40 40 70 San Angelo 86 68 86 67 / 40 40 50 70 Junction 89 69 87 70 / 30 20 50 70 Brownwood 87 69 86 69 / 20 20 40 60 Sweetwater 83 67 82 67 / 40 60 50 70 Ozona 82 68 81 67 / 40 50 50 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/04