235 FXUS64 KLUB 030523 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions in place at all three terminals. TSRA will continue for KLBB and KPVW for the next several hours. Thus, ceilings may flirt with MVFR at both sites until storms are east of the area. MVFR ceilings are possible early this morning behind the convective system but uncertainty is too high to include in this forecast. Expect VFR for much of the day with a chance for TS late this evening into early morning hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ AVIATION... The latest rounds of TAFs are highly uncertain in most aspects. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico may expand in coverage when moving into West Texas this evening. At the moment, the KLBB terminal stands the best chance at seeing thunderstorm activity. Additionally, low CIGS will be possible at all TAF sites but coverage, timing, and eventual formation are highly uncertain. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ DISCUSSION... Whats left of the convection from last night that has continued into early afternoon, has weakened considerably and is slowly progressing eastward toward central Texas. The atmosphere is stable in the wake of this activity, and along with cloud cover, has slowed the recovery of instability across much of our CWA. Southeast New Mexico and the southwestern South Plains have begun to clear out. This area will be the most likely area for convection to develop going into the evening hours. Marginally severe storms are still possible, especially across the central and southern South Plains, with 70 MPH wind gusts and quarter size hail with the strongest updrafts. After sunset, we'll see the remainder of the night unfold similarly to last night. Weak shortwave energy will lead to midlevel height falls across the NM/TX state line, along with surface moisture convergence. This will lead to more wide spread general thunderstorms that will eventually work their way eastward during the overnight hours, although there may be some embedded strong to marginally severe storms as well. The synoptic set up tomorrow will be almost identical again to today, which will also be further complicated by any lingering convection during the morning hours tomorrow. Nonetheless, the ingredients remain intact for several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms migrating off the higher terrain to the west and working their way into the South Plains, southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains through midweek. Once the upper level low parked to out west eventually begins to exit by Wednesday we'll see a drier pattern, and also warmer, set in by late Thursday and Friday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 28/99/28