382 FXUS65 KABQ 011710 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1110 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE The primary focus today will be severe convection along and east of the central mt chain, particularly in the window from 20Z to 03Z. Convective activity within the RGV and surrounding higher terrain will produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts while the activity in the east will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Once convective activity shifts east into the plains overnight an area of low cigs is expected to develop in its wake. Areas around KLVS and KTCC will be most favorable for MVFR low cigs with perhaps some SHRA and patchy fog around sunrise. Another round of severe storms is possible on Sunday over eastern NM. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...243 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for portions of eastern New Mexico through the middle of next week. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds, though an tornado cannot be ruled out. Best chances for severe weather will be today through Monday. Heavy rain and flooding will also become an increasing concern as storms roll over the same areas repeatedly. Thunderstorms will be possible across western New Mexico today and Monday as well. These storms may produce gusty winds. Temperatures will remain at or below normal for the next seven days. /evening && .DISCUSSION... An active pattern remains forecast over the next few days as abundant low level moisture remains in place across eastern NM and an upper level low pressure system remains over southern CA. Weak perturbations in southwest flow aloft should help trigger storms each afternoon. For today, storms are expected to develop early this afternoon and shift east/northeast. Storms roughly north of I-40 look to become multicellular rather quickly thanks to lower effective shear values. Hail will be the main threat with these storms initially, but as they grow upscale as they shift toward Texas/Oklahoma, winds will become more of a threat. Further south, storms look to have the potential to remain more discrete initially with greater instability present and effective shear values AOA 35kts. Thus, potential for severe weather seems somewhat greater here. What happens on Sunday will largely depend on what happens today. If cloud cover persists, or if remnant boundaries are present, it will change the outlook some. For now, potential for severe weather exists again across eastern NM. The dryline will be sharper than today near or just east of the central mountain chain as dry southwest flow mixes to the surface across the west. Flow at the surface should be backed more than today and CAPE values will be higher. Models are hinting at two areas of storm development. The first near/east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains which again looks to grow upscale and organize as it moves across northeast NM. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats with these storms. The second is along the east slopes of the south central mountains, much like last night. These storms again will have the potential to remain more discrete initially before shifting eastward toward Texas. And then there's Monday, and again, it should go without saying that it will depend on how today and tomorrow shake out. Overall though, the pattern will be similar to today and Sunday. Thus, a severe weather threat will exist across eastern NM with moist upslope flow. By Tuesday, the upper low will be scooting across the southern AZ border. Models are suggesting that the low level moisture will mix out somewhat more than previous days with a slightly more westerly component to the winds. This remains to be seen, but even still, moisture values will remain quite high across the plains. Interestingly though, the GFS remains quite bullish at breaking out widespread precip across the plains, while the ECMWF breaks out little QPF. The low will cross over NM from southwest to northeast on Wednesday, a bit earlier than thought previously. Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast across the north and east, but behind the system on Thursday, drier air will be marching into NM, significantly limiting thunderstorm potential. Perhaps even a few dry days are in store for the east at the end of next week. What about western NM? A few thunderstorms will be possible today mainly along and east of the ContDvd. Gusty winds will be possible with these storms as suggested by the large inverted-V forecast soundings. Sunday should just feature breezy southwest winds but not much, if any, storms. However, Monday should be more like today, with a few storms with gusty winds possible. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... The weather will be dominated by low level, moist flow from the south through the middle of next week, thanks to a stalled upper low over CA. It will take until Wednesday for the low to reach NM. This will result in daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon into the night through Wednesday. Storms in the west will be a mixture of dry and wet, with strong and gusty outflow winds possible the closer to AZ you go. Storms in the east will be wet with heavy rain in many of the storms. The closer to the TX border, the greater the threat for severe weather with large hail and damaging wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado. Brief drying in the mid levels Sunday will cut back on convection in the west. The most active days in the east will be this weekend and perhaps early next week. The most widespread convection looks to be Monday through Wednesday with the approach and passage of the upper low. A drying trend will begin Thursday and continue into next weekend. It may take until next Saturday before the forecast area is completely free of rain. There will be no critical fire weather conditions through the next seven days and no widespread poor ventilation. High Haines will favor the west through mid-week. Moderate or lower Haines is forecast for Thursday, then widespread moderate to high values are expected Friday into next weekend. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$