696 
FXUS64 KLUB 011123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through much of
the morning. Ceilings and visibilities become more uncertain at 
KLBB and KPVW after 21Z and after 00Z at KCDS as showers and 
thunderstorms begin to develop. Storms are expected near all three
terminals for the remainder of the evening and into Sunday 
morning. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Not much change in the synoptic picture over the past 24 hours other 
than perhaps a little slower ejection of the low over California. We 
will remain under the influence of high moisture levels under an 
upper level ridge until the aforementioned feature makes it way into 
the central CONUS mid-next week.  After a short period of near zonal 
flow late-week, the UL flow will return to a southwesterly regime.

Models have substantially over-done the convection this morning and 
we're watching SERN CO for possible MCS development which, as models 
indicate, could drive an outflow boundary into our northeastern CWFA 
and influence precip chances in its vicinity.  The general trend 
continues to be mostly dry days with a shot at late evening and 
overnight thunderstorms.  Saturday night looks to favor the 
Panhandle with perhaps the South Plains favored on Sunday night. 
Monday night's chances looks to be more limited favoring the TX/NM 
state line.  That said, the activity on a given night will influence 
later activity so it doesn't pay to get too cute with the locations 
beyond a couple of days.  Things look to dry out Thursday and 
beyond as the California low kicks out.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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