483 
FXUS64 KMRX 010712
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...Early this morning, satellite
night-time fog product shows fog (some likely dense) has 
developed across mainly the river and lakes of southwest Virginia 
and northeast Tennessee spreading into the northern Plateau. The 
fog will continue to develop along the waterways given the 
relatively warm lakes producing steam fog.

For today, a weak wave will move across the area with only lift 
coming from area terrain. Will call for isolated to widely scattered 
storms this afternoon/evening mainly near the higher elevations. 
Cooler and lower dewpoints will make for a more pleasant day.

For tonight, convection will likely dissipate soon after sunset, but 
another wave in the northwest flow aloft will approach the Tennessee 
Valley/southern Appalachians toward daybreak. Will continue trend of 
low chance of convection by 12Z Sunday for the northern sections.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)...A pre-frontal trough is 
expected to move into the area from the north on Sunday. The NAM 
continues to be the most bullish model on precip chances, and the 
forecast will favor its solution. Although mid and upper level 
forcing is weak and moisture will be lacking, there appears to be 
adequate instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms in 
the afternoon, favoring areas north of I-40 and particularly SW VA
where LI values will be in the -4 to -7 range. The threat of 
severe looks low as shear is weak, but MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg could
result in a marginal hail threat. Precip chances drop off behind 
the trough passage around 00Z, but will keep a slight chance going
until 06Z Monday when the cold front passage occurs. 

High pressure with origins in central Canada will drop southward 
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, providing a dry and cool 
air mass for our area. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s to lower 
80s in most spots, with lows Monday night in the 50s. A Dry NW flow 
continues into Tuesday, providing sunny skies and highs in the lower 
to mid 80s. 

Moisture will start to increase on Wednesday as the high pressure 
system shifts to the Mid Atlantic region and a more S-SW low level 
flow develops. To the west, a low pressure system will be developing 
in the lee of the Rockies, and the models generally agree that it 
will transition to a closed low as it slowly moves east through 
Friday. Details are unclear at this point as there is model 
disagreement on the position of the low, but the general pattern of 
a SW flow ahead of this system will favor chance PoPs across the 
area for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  65  88  62 /   0  10  20  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  64  85  59 /  10  10  30  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  63  86  59 /  10  10  30  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  57  81  54 /  20  10  60  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$