750 FXUS63 KDLH 010300 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1000 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Updated Marine discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along the lake breeze in northwest Wisconsin and in the warm sector farther south. A synoptic cool front was nearly co-located with the lake breeze over northwest Wisconsin and stretched west across central Minnesota. A weak area of surface low pressure was centered along the Wisconsin/Michigan border. The surface low will move to the southeast toward northern Lower Michigan this evening as the cool front sags south into southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Showers and storms will become more numerous over our southernmost Wisconsin zones during the next hour or two. Storm motion is generally toward the east-southeast at 30 to 35 mph. Upstream development will keep the threat of showers and storms from the Pine City east to Phillips and Prentice through early evening. As the front moves south out of our forecast area, the showers and storms will move out as well. There is a slight chance of showers redeveloping north of the boundary and we have held onto a mention of showers overnight. High pressure will build into the region for Saturday and Saturday night with northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures expected. Highs will range from the upper 50s along the north shore of Lake Superior to the upper 60s in Pine County. Temperatures trend cooler for Saturday night and patchy frost is possible from central Minnesota into the International Border areas, including all of the Minnesota Arrowhead. Lows will dip into the middle 30s to low 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Cool and dry northerly flow will keep most of Sunday dry, but an upper level disturbance will slide down the back side of an upper level trough on Sunday night and will overrun a baroclinic zone. This will cause frontogenetic forcing which will increase the potential for rain overnight into Monday morning along a thin band extending from I-Falls to Hayward. Weak ridging on Monday should keep us dry and seasonably warm. The next system begins to push in Tuesday morning and should blossom into a widespread thunderstorm afternoon. Still not looking too good on the shear side of the equation, but convective instability and low level forcing are good. Would like to see a bit more upper level support besides a short wave, but steep mid level lapse rates will have to do. Still not thinking the severe threat is too high with this, but again it bears watching and will likely ruin any outdoor plans. Upper level ridging will bring warm and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Fairly quiet weather with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pressure will gradually build into the region for Saturday causing skies to be mostly clear for northern areas tonight. Some clouds will remain near HYR as a cold front and some associated showers move south. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Winds will be a bit blustery this evening but becoming light overnight. Some blustery winds may develop Saturday afternoon as well with gusts up to around 20 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Weak gradients over the area through Sunday to produce generally light winds and waves of less than 3 feet. Otherwise fairly quiet as any thunderstorm chances tonight and early Saturday to stay south of Lake Superior, with no new precipitation chances not until Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 44 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 INL 40 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 10 BRD 50 68 41 68 / 10 0 0 0 HYR 47 69 38 64 / 30 10 0 0 ASX 41 66 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...Huyck LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...JS MARINE...LE