902 FXUS66 KPDT 310937 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 237 AM PDT Fri May 31 2019 .SHORT TERM... Today through Sunday...An area of low pressure was located over northern California. It will continue to move slowly southward though Sunday to a position over southern California. There remains decent moisture over the area, though with the low moving further south there will be less than on Thursday. However there is still abundant instability, with afternoon Lifted Indices over northeastern sections forecast to be between -4 and -6. So it looks once again that there will be some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over eastern areas and the mountains and anything that does get going could have heavy rain, small hail and the potential to become strong. However, areal coverage is likely to be less than on Thursday. On Saturday, as the low moves even further south, there will still be some lingering moisture, but much less instability, so there will still be some lower precip chances, mainly south and east. By Sunday, the low is far enough away that some ridging build into the north and we get into a more westerly flow. Most areas should be dry except for some isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains. Temperatures should rise each day with valley locations in the lower to mid 80s today and mid to upper 80s on Saturday. On Sunday, many lower elevation locations will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. .LONG TERM... Sunday night through Thursday...A west-southwest flow aloft will bring dry conditions through Wednesday, although there will be periods of breezy to windy conditions. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s for most of the region. The forecast temperatures are about 5-10 degrees above average for early June. Models are hinting at a strong cold front on Thursday, especially the ECMWF. Gusty winds, a chance of showers or thunderstorms over the mountains, and around a ten degree drop in temperatures are possible on Thursday. The 00Z ECMWF may be a bit overdone on the strength of the upper level trough on Thursday and the significant drop in temperatures (ECMWF indicating snow levels down to 5000 feet), but there is considerable spread in the ensemble members of the GEFS. If future runs come into agreement with the ECMWF, then temperatures may need to be lowered a few degrees for Thursday. Wister && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs (previous discussion)...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Precip has for the most part ended this evening. More scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains and possibly along the foothills near PDT/ALW tomorrow afternoon/evening. Any thunderstorms could have heavy rain and briefly cause MVFR. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts except for KDLS which will have 10 to 15 kt winds with gusts up to around 20 kts tomorrow afternoon. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 83 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 ALW 84 62 87 61 / 10 10 10 0 PSC 89 64 92 63 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 86 60 88 59 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 88 61 91 60 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 82 56 83 55 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 78 53 80 52 / 10 20 10 10 LGD 75 54 78 55 / 20 20 20 10 GCD 74 53 78 54 / 30 20 30 20 DLS 85 59 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 77/85/85