201 FXUS61 KRLX 310611 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 AM EDT Fri May 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front pushes southeast overnight. An upper air disturbance on Friday. A stronger cold front Sunday. High pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Thursday... Hi-res models still try to dissipate the convection across central Ohio as it moves into the forecast area so stuck with isolated wording, but opted to update POPs to include showers and storms a bit farther south than previously forecast. As of 300 PM Thursday... This afternoon, a remnant boundary lays across the area, leftover from yesterday. At this hour it resides along a line extending from central KY into the north/central mountains of West Virginia. A disturbance aloft ahead of a compact upper level trough drives thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening as it crosses, focusing along and south of this boundary as a low-level jet surges into the area from the SW. The result is the wave of convection seen presently on radar, roughly in a line across southern WV and SE KY, and a more broad area of stratiform rain across the Ohio Valley. In line with SPC's thinking, favorable instability is relegated to mainly the southeast half of the CWA, coincident with and south of the front, which convection is presently taking advantage of. While instability is still iffy based on ongoing convection, wind fields remain favorable for organized convection through the day, aided by the short wave disturbance moving across. Greatest convective threat remains damaging wind gusts, however the short wave does introduce enough helicity to where an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The backbuilding nature of convection, with the SWerly jet pumping in a steady stream of high moisture air into it, and the training nature of storms across the slow-moving boundary, spells a localized flash flooding threat especially across the south where higher rainfall rates in convection can be realized. Tonight, activity quiets along the boundary as the disturbance pushes east with mainly isolated showers in the mountains and perhaps across the south. Subsidence in its wake and ample low level moisture will likely lead to the development of at least a patchy stratus deck overnight, which may linger well into the mid to late morning Friday. Another cold front approaches overnight from the North, but ought to be entering a stabilized atmosphere thanks to today's storms. Tomorrow, the parent low center moves across the area, accompanying this cold front. Thunderstorms will again be possible toward the south, but widespread cloud cover early will stifle destabilization. Though, the cold core aloft may allow for sub-severe hail. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Friday... Much of Saturday will be dry, although showers and thunderstorms are likely particularly across the north, as frontal boundary sags south towards the area. Risk of severe on Saturday remains low, but heavy downpours will continue to be a possibility in the moisture laden atmosphere. Greater chances for showers and storms on Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front sweeps through the area. Some storms on Sunday could be strong to severe, particularly across the north where better dynamics will exist. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 AM Friday... Cooler and less humid air mass expected for the start of next week behind frontal passage. Unsettled weather returns by mid to late week as a series of disturbances affect the area. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 AM Friday... Satellite imagery shows areas of clear skies across central portions of southeast OH and WV overnight. Under light winds, areas of fog are evident on satellite images over clear skies and areas that received rainfall yesterday. IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail across CRW, HTS and PKB through 13Z Friday. MVFR ceilings should prevail through the early morning hours over the rest of sites. Nocturnal satellite imagery and surface observations an IFR/MVFR stratocu deck from PKB east through CKB. These clouds are expected to continue and perhaps lowering to all IFR or worst towards 11-12Z. Conditions will improve by 14Z this morning. However, showers and storms could develop during the afternoon heating as an upper level trough crosses. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur along their path. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in stratus and/or fog tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/31/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H L H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H L L L H M M H L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M H H L H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H L H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in fog/stratus Saturday and again in showers and storms Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MC/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/MC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ