271 
FXUS63 KILX 301957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

Weak NW-SE oriented surface trough extending from near Moline to
just north of Lafayette, Indiana is triggering widely scattered 
convection this afternoon. An upper low centered further west over
Iowa will provide additional lift along the boundary and should
result in scattered showers/storms across much of the KILX CWA
late this afternoon into early this evening. Based on radar trends
and latest HRRR forecast, it appears convection will be most
focused from Bloomington E/SE to Paris over the next few hours.
Have therefore gone with 40 PoPs across this corridor, with 20-30
PoPs elsewhere. The convection will gradually dissipate this 
evening, followed by mostly clear and dry conditions overnight. 
Once the upper low passes to the east, short-wave ridging in its 
wake will provide mostly sunny and warm weather on Friday with 
highs in the lower 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

The first part of the extended will be dominated by deep upper
troughing over eastern Canada into New England...resulting in 
northwesterly flow across the Midwest. A short-wave trough 
embedded within the flow will track from southern Saskatchewan 
Friday morning into Illinois by Saturday. As this feature 
approaches, an associated cold front will interact with a
moderately unstable/sheared environment to produce scattered
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. With SBCAPE values
progged to range from 1500-2500J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of
30-40kt, think a few strong storms with large hail/damaging wind
gusts will be possible. As such, SPC has highlighted locations 
north of the I-70 corridor for a Marginal Risk for severe on 
Saturday.

Once the cold front passes, Canadian high pressure will build
southward into the region and provide a period of cooler/drier
weather for Sunday through Tuesday. After that, a return to
unsettled conditions appears likely for the middle and end of 
next week as upper ridging tries to build back into the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

Diurnal Cu field has developed across central Illinois early this
afternoon...with MVFR ceilings at both KBMI and KCMI. Ceilings
will rise to VFR at all TAF sites over the next 1-2 hours, 
followed by widely scattered convection later this afternoon. 
Based on latest satellite/radar trends showing enhanced Cu along a
trough axis near the I-80 corridor, have added a period of VCTS 
after 20z at the I-74 terminals and further south to KSPI after
22z. Any convection that develops will dissipate after sunset 
with mostly clear skies expected through the remainder of the 
period. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes