043 FXUS64 KFWD 301737 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1237 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019 .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ A deck of MVFR cigs continues to erode from north to south, and has nearly cleared the Waco TAF site as of 1730z. DFW area airports cleared earlier this morning, where VFR will prevail through the remainder of the period. North winds around 10 kts or less will persist through this evening, before beginning to turn easterly overnight. By Friday morning, winds should return to a southerly direction while remaining light. Convective activity from West Texas may approach Central Texas Friday morning, but will hold off on any precip mention in the Waco TAF at this time. Also cannot completely rule out a brief stratus intrusion at Waco tomorrow morning, but this potential seems a bit too low to include in the TAF as well. -Stalley && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ The weak cold front that was the focus for thunderstorms on Wednesday will continue to sag slowly south through Central Texas this morning. Thunderstorms will remain along the front through the day, but all activity should shift south of the CWA before midday. Slightly cooler and drier air will work into the region today, resulting in decreasing clouds from north to south. Any patchy fog that manages to develop early this morning will also be brief and quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise. The return of the sun will offset the weak cold air advection, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s this afternoon. Some low (20%-30%) thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast tonight across the southwest half of the forecast area due to isentropic lift and the approach of a shortwave out of southwest Texas. The good news is that this activity will remain well below severe limits due to limited instability and shear. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s near the Red River to near 70 across the southern zones where cloud cover will be more abundant. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019/ /Friday through Wednesday/ An upper level ridge will build from the Gulf to the Central Rockies through the weekend, keeping a low pressure system spinning across the West Coast. Although the West Coast system will have no direct impact on Texas weather, it will keep a constant supply of Pacific moisture in place. This elevated moisture, coupled with the return of low level moisture and some subtle weaknesses in the ridge, will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. The good news is that these storms should not become severe or linger for very long, so the weekend will not be a total wash and the building ridge will allow for some sun. Temperatures Friday will be near or below seasonal normals with highs generally in the 80s. A gradual warming trend is expected the remainder of the weekend with highs Sunday reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region the first half of next week due to lingering moisture and a slowly deamplifying ridge. We will maintain low PoPs due to a lack of any well defined forcing mechanisms. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will remain on the warm side with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 70s. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 66 85 70 89 / 0 10 20 10 30 Waco 84 67 84 69 90 / 5 20 30 10 20 Paris 82 62 85 65 87 / 0 0 5 5 20 Denton 83 62 85 67 88 / 0 5 10 10 30 McKinney 83 62 85 66 88 / 0 5 10 10 30 Dallas 85 68 87 71 90 / 0 5 20 10 30 Terrell 84 64 86 67 89 / 0 5 20 10 20 Corsicana 83 66 84 68 88 / 5 10 20 10 20 Temple 83 68 83 69 89 / 10 30 40 10 30 Mineral Wells 82 63 83 66 87 / 0 10 20 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/92