349 
FXUS63 KEAX 301729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2019

On the large scale this morning, regional water vapor imagery
depicting an upper low over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa 
with cyclonic prevailing further south over the lower Missouri 
Vly. This feature is expected to continue tracking south and east 
today, with fcst models insistent that instability-type 
shwrs/storms will develop later this afternoon thanks to daytime 
heating and cold temperatures aloft. Fcst soundings from across 
the region show weak mid-level capping this afternoon, which will 
likely prevent more widespread activity from developing. Despite 
this, high-res models still show some activity later later today,
however coverage will likely stay in the isolated to low-end scattered
coverage categories. Activity should gradually come to an end 
early this evening with loss of daytime heating. With abundant 
cloud cover over head along with cold low and mid-level 
temperatures, expect high temperatures to only warm into the lower
70s this afternoon.

Following this afternoon's isolated to scattered activity, dry
weather looks to return to the region for the first time in awhile
on Friday as weak upper ridging builds overhead. This should 
allow for warming temperatures with low 80s expected both Friday 
and Saturday afternoons, with shwr/storm chances holding off until
at least Saturday when a frontal boundary approaches from the 
north. This feature looks to pass through the region Saturday 
night thanks to approaching high pressure from the north, which 
should lead to dry conditions on Sunday with continuation into 
early portions of next week. Unfortunately this trend won't last 
as this boundary will eventually stall south of the region where 
it will then become a focus for shwrs/storms through middle 
portions of next week. Fortunately however, temperatures look to 
hover near normal for early June standards during this time frame.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...CDB