980 FXUS62 KMHX 301044 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 644 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain offshore through tonight with very hot temperatures expected across the area. A cold front is expected to move into the area late Friday and gradually dissipate over the weekend. Another cold front will cross early Monday. High pressure will build in through middle next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 645 AM Thu...Latest sfc analysis high pressure offshore, troughing inland, while strong ridging continues aloft. Little to no change to overall pattern today, as S/SW flow continues across the area. This should be the last day of the heatwave as more records are likely broken. See climate section below for details. Low level thickness values, 850mb temps around 22C, and WSW flow support highs 90-100 degrees, warmest along and west of Hwy 17. Dewpoints may be slightly higher than last few days, but should mix out enough for heat index values to remain about 100-104 degrees during the afternoon. Though some spots could see heat indices briefly hit 105 deg. Isolated showers trying to develop south of Wilmington to Myrtle Beach early this morning, near an area of enhanced moisture convergence and instability. Some high res guidance shows this trying to making a run at the Crystal Coast over the next few hours, but feel its a bit overdone though cannot rule out an isolated shower this morning. Only real change to the forecast was to add isolated shower/tstm chances this afternoon and evening. Most of the CAMs show isolated to widely scattered sea breeze driven convection developing. Think some of this development is a bit overdone given the very dry mid level air, subsidence beneath the ridge, and the last several days in the same pattern with no precip. But dewpoints may be a degree or two higher and coupled with shortwave energy to north and the seabreeze, it might be enough to spark some isolated pulse type convection. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Thu...Any lingering showers or storms should dissipate quickly with loss of heating. Warm SW flow continues tonight, with lows dropping into the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thu...Last day of well above normal temps expected Friday, before several shortwaves and frontal boundaries bring precip to the area, and then cooler and more seasonable along with dry weather for next week. Friday through Friday night...A compact but relatively strong short wave will move through late Friday, setting the stage for sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Fri afternoon and especially Friday evening. The day will begin dry and hot, with highs still well above normal but lower than the record setting string of days observed recently. Highs should reach the 90-95 degree range most areas, with 85-90 on the beaches. Late in the day, as shortwave moves into the western Carolinas and convective temps are reached, the stage will be set for thunderstorm development, esp for nrn/nwrn counties in vcnty of weak frontal boundary. Storms may become severe, as increasing flow aloft will yield deep layer shear inc to above 35 kt. Thunderstorm chances maximized early Friday evening as forcing is strongest with shortwave moving through, and sct to numerous thunderstorms will move through the region. Damaging downburst winds will be the main threat with some of the strongest storms. By around midnight, showers/storms will move offshore and mainly dry conditions through the overnight. Saturday...The aforementioned shortwave will be off the NC coast on Saturday, and will spur weak sfc cyclogenesis offshore. Some sct showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop across the area on Sat, best chances interior zones where heating is maximized. Temps held down somewhat by cloud cover and sct precip, with readings generally in the mid 80s. Sat night is dry with the spotty diurnal showers or storms weakening by sunset. Sunday...Secondary shortwave will round base of longwave trough across Great Lakes region, but not much recovery of moisture with this system as low/mid level wind field will generally be westerly, so kept pops in the low chc range at best, with again best chances interior zones where daytime heating is maximized. Highs 85-90 inland with low/mid 80s on the coast. Monday through Wednesday...Strong high pressure is progged to build into the area behind departing cold front early through the middle of the week bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures and a more comfortable airmass with lower TD's. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s with lows 60-65, near climo for early June. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 645 AM Thu...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Isolated showers/tstms possible this afternoon and early evening. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt this afternoon. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thu...A front will approach and move through Friday through Friday night. Scattered thunderstorms late Friday afternoon, with sct to numerous storms Friday evening, then just sct to isolated showers or storms on Sat and Sun. As low levels moisten, cannot rule out patchy late night/early morning fog or stratus Saturday or Sunday as well. Dry high pres builds in by monday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 645 AM Thu...Small Craft conditions expected to develop across the waters and Pamlico Sound late this afternoon and tonight. Latest obs show W/WSW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. The pressure gradient between a trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore will tighten this afternoon and tonight resulting in SW winds increasing to 15-25 knots this afternoon and tonight. Seas will peak at 4-7 ft tonight. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Only change to ongoing SCA headlines was to add northern waters, where likely to have frequent gusts to 25 kt. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thu...A front will slowly move across the area over the weekend with a few weak low pressure areas lifting along the boundary. Gradient diminishes to less than 20 kt on Friday, with weak front moving into the nrn waters switching winds to NE. Weak low develops offshore on Sat with winds everywhere becoming generally northerly, though remain 15 kt or less. Seas subside to to 3-5 ft by late Friday and to 2-4 ft Saturday into Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Thu...Minimum RH values are expected to drop to 25-30 percent inland this afternoon. This combined with hot temperatures, dry conditions, and southwest wind gusts 20 to 25 mph will lead to an increased Fire Danger threat today. && .CLIMATE... Record or near record warmth is expected today. Record High temps for 5/30 (today) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1991 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 89/1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 95/1918 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1988 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 95/1991 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/1991 (KNCA ASOS) **All-Time May Record Highs** LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1953 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 91/2011 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2011 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 97/2011 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 100/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 98/1962 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CQD/TL MARINE...CQD/TL FIRE WEATHER...MHX CLIMATE...MHX