289 FXUS61 KBGM 301040 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 640 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley this morning to coastal New Jersey by this evening. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will occur with this system primarily this afternoon into the evening. High pressure with dry weather is expected on Friday before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued a flash flood watch this afternoon through early evening for Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, and Southern Wayne counties in northeast Pennsylvania. Another mid level short wave and associated surface low will track from the Ohio Valley to coastal New Jersey by this evening. This feature will bring another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms to northeast Pennsylvania, the southern tier and western Catskills. The northern forecast area may only see scattered activity. Surface based instability is really lacking today indicating less of a threat for strong/severe storms. The soundings for the southeast forecast area show tall/skinny CAPE with a significant warm cloud layer, indicating the potential for heavy downpours. Since this area has already received significant rainfall the past couple of days leading to very wet antecedent soil conditions decided to issued a flash flood watch. Short wave moves east of the region by early evening brining an end to the recent wet weather. A surface trough will drop through the area overnight with much drier air behind this boundary. Surface high pressure will reside over the area on Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies expected and highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Active pattern will continue this weekend. The 00Z guidance is in fairly good agreement through Saturday, with a a short wave passing through the region Saturday afternoon, however the guidance diverges thereafter. The Euro is much more progressive with the next wave coming in Sunday morning and exiting late Sunday. However, the GFS shows a mostly dry day Sunday, with an amplified upper trough/low swinging in late Sunday. Ensembles are also indicating high uncertainty, so forecast confidence will remain low after Saturday. Used a blend of deterministic and ensemble guidance through the weekend. This generally gave chance PoP through the period, mostly due to the placement and temporal disagreement between the models at this time. So, although unsettled conditions are expected this weekend, there will likely be some breaks in the action with not a complete washout. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As mentioned in the short term discussion, guidance is significantly different through the remainder of the forecast. GFS keeps a stacked low over the Northeast/New England while the Euro has this feature stationed over Central Quebec and surface ridging/dry weather building into the area. The GFS solution would be very wet through the remainder of the period. GEFS H500 spaghetti plots show zero agreement in the overall pattern and what to do with upper trough/low. So confidence through the long term will remain low until the guidance can get a better handle on this feature and start to show some run-to-run consistency. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highly variable conditions early this morning will improve to VFR by mid morning. Another round of showers will impact the southern terminals from mid afternoon into the early evening with occasional MVFR conditions. Thunderstorms are possible but not included due to limited areal coverage. Once this activity moves east the ceilings will lower into the MVFR/Alternate Required category overnight. Light and variable winds becoming southwest at 5-8 knots later this morning then becoming westerly overnight. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Monday...Intermittent restrictions in rain showers; some daytime thunder also possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for PAZ044-047-048-072. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RRM