613 
FXUS64 KJAN 300902
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight:

A shortwave trough sliding east across the Midwest will bring a 
cold front into our region today, but with daytime heating and a 
lack of strong forcing, the front will not make much southeastward
progress into our forecast area. In advance of this front, a line
of showers and storms has continued to decay overnight, but some 
light rain will continue to be possible in the near-term across 
far southeast Arkansas. By peak heating late this morning and 
early this afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms are 
expected to develop in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. While
this activity could extend northeast from central Louisiana 
toward the Golden Triangle area in northeast Mississippi, model 
guidance indicate better moisture and instability will be in place
across the central Louisiana/southwest Mississippi area for the 
afternoon hours. As long as the cap can be overcome, forecast 
soundings in the southwest show the potential for 1500+ J/kg of 
MLCAPE. Unidirectional deep- layer shear of around 20-25 kts will 
be marginal at best for maintaining organization to any storms 
which develop, but some stronger pulse type storms are certainly 
possible. DCAPE values do not look impressive enough for a severe 
threat from microbursts, but some gusty wind potential will still 
exist with the strongest storms. Expect shower and storm coverage 
to taper off after sunset. /NF/

Friday through next week:

Warm and mainly dry conditions will persist through the mid to
long term periods. 

Quasi zonal upper level flow will develop over the region on 
Friday as a mid level ridge and surface high begin to strengthen
to the west of the area. The upper level flow pattern will become
northwesterly as we progress through the weekend as the surface
high continues to strengthen over the eastern half of the US.
Highs this weekend will be back into the lower to mid 90s as the
mid level ridge settles over the lower MS River Valley. 

Some rain chances will return by early next week as the upper
level NW flow pattern remains in place and moisture values
increase. A few impulses in the NW flow pattern could result in
storms somewhere in the Lower MS River Valley on Monday and
Tuesday. Exact location and timing is hard to pinpoint at this
time. Temperatures will remain well above normal first week of
June averages through this period. Isolated storm chances will
remain through the mid week period as PWats remain above 1.5"
areawide. /JPM3/

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF discussion: 
VFR conditions to begin the period at all TAF sites, with some
chance for BR and low stratus to impact sites along and south of
Interstate 20 by around 12Z today. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop in western portions of the
area by this afternoon and move east through 00Z Friday. Gusty
winds and brief reductions in visibility could accompany any
stronger storms. Coverage of showers and storms should decrease 
around the region after 00Z, so left mention of SHRA or TSRA out 
of TAFs beyond that time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  69  88  66 /  29  16   6   3 
Meridian      91  70  90  65 /   6  16   7   4 
Vicksburg     85  69  88  66 /  43  15   6   4 
Hattiesburg   93  72  92  67 /   6  16  10   4 
Natchez       86  69  88  67 /  42  16   6   3 
Greenville    85  68  88  67 /  41   6   3   3 
Greenwood     86  67  87  65 /  34   8   4   4 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3/NF