407 FXUS61 KBGM 291906 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 306 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A line of thunderstorms will affect the region through early evening, mainly south of the NY / PA border. Another storm is forecast to move through the northeast on Thursday, ushering in additional showers and a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 3 PM update... A line of intense thunderstorms will move through Northeast PA through late afternoon. Driven by MLCape values between 1000-1500 j/kg and 50-60 kt bulk shears, these storms will continue to intensify with isolated supercells possible. The latest model predictions push the convective line east of our FA around 6 PM with scattered light showers trailing the thunderstorms. Except for a stray sprinkle or shower over our southeastern forecast area, the overnight hours will be dry with low clouds and patchy fog forming. Another wave will rotate into NY/PA Thursday afternoon and spark another round of showers and thunderstorms. Though the storms are not expected to be as intense as the last few days, precipitable water will range from 1.25 to 1.50 inches between the Twin Tiers and Wyoming Valley. Because portions of this region received copious rainfall in recent days, any storms forming over this area will need to be monitored. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue for the first half of Thursday night before finally moving eastward. Storm total QPF values of 0.50 to 0.80 inches are forecast from the NY/PA border southward. 130 PM update... A tornado watch is in effect for Luzerne County until 8 PM EDT. 1025 AM update... A line of showers is moving across Lakes Erie and Ontario at this time. Breaks in the overcast over the Wyoming Valley will cause atmospheric destabilization this afternoon with potential CAPE values of 1000 j/kg or greater. In addition, winds shifting aloft will create a favorable hodograph for organized severe convection, with supercells possible from the Wyoming Valley southward. We expect thunderstorms to rapidly intensify between 130 PM and 3 PM. The greatest threat for severity weather will be before 630 PM. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave departs early Friday allowing some weak ridging and drier air to build into the region. After perhaps a morning sprinkle, Friday should be dry and seasonable for the forecast area as the frontal boundary drops south once again. Fast NW flow brings yet another short wave through the area Saturday. This system lifts the front back northward and fires showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. In any case, system is covering a broad area and frontal position is not sure so will expect showers over much of the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Unsettled weather will continue for the end of the weekend into Monday. Upper trough settles in over the area for Sunday and Monday as multiple short waves rotate through. This will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area for the end of the weekend into the work week. Surface ridge builds in for Tuesday and the trough axis moves into New England. This will bring a cool northerly flow but somewhat drier air into the area. Temperatures through the period will generally remain below normal. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Strong thunderstorms will affect areas of Central and Northern PA through this evening with the likelihood of thunderstorms impacting the KAVP terminal between 19z and 23z. MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop overnight across all of our terminals. Spotty IFR ceilings are likely, especially at KBGM and KITH. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings is forecast across the terminals by late Thursday morning. Outlook... Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Occasional restrictions from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Sunday...Intermittent restrictions in rain showers; some daytime thunder also possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ043-044- 047-048-072. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DJP