048 FXUS64 KLUB 291654 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019 .AVIATION... VFR will prevail for the remainder of this afternoon and evening at all threes terminals. MVFR to LIFR ceilings may develop early Thursday morning, but confidence is too low at this point for mentioning in the TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1029 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019/ UPDATE... Shower chances dwindling as disturbance glides by just to the south. Drier more stable air taking more control and severe thunderstorm chances dropping as well. Retained slight chance afternoon thunder though this may be tough to come by. RMcQueen && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019/ DISCUSSION... The cold front has made its way to the southern TX Panhandle and is steadily pushing southward and should make its way to our souther FA border by mid morning. Currently there is no convection along the front, but that should change over the next several hours. On cue per the GFS and NAM, convection developed over the Permian Basin around 06Z just as a shortwave is moving overhead. This activity should push northeastward with the mean flow before encountering the surface front across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains early this morning. By mid morning the main core of energy with the upper low that is currently over southwestern NM should move over the FA. The combination of the convection meeting the front and additional upper level lift should allow for thunderstorm coverage to further expand across much of our eastern and southern zones. Some of these storms could be strong to severe as well as produce heavy rainfall. This activity should move fairly quickly east by this evening as the upper trough pushes eastward and gets absorbed into the main upper low currently moving across the central Plains. Upper ridging will move in following passage of the trough and will persist through much of the day tomorrow. Despite upper ridging being in place temps should remain relatively cool (though still warmer than today) as a surface high sits over OK allowing cool easterly surface flow to keep temps in check. Some additional showers and thunderstorms could be possible late Thursday into Friday as moist upslope flow allows for mountain top convection to develop over NM under a passing shortwave and southwesterly flow aloft pushes said convection into the FA. This appears to be a continuing pattern into the weekend as the upper ridge stays put overhead and an upper low stays put over SOCAL. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/99